Minors Pitching Staff Analysis, Part Two

Usually, what makes the Syracuse staff tough to pick is trying to divine which pitchers will miss the big club but stick on. What makes the Harrisburg staff a challenge is figuring out who’s going to get promoted from Potomac and which of the minor-league FAs will be kept and assigned here.

So how did I do picking the 2012 Harrisburg Senators?

Another 50-50 proposition (8/16). I might have done better if Solis hadn’t gone down with an injury and Bronson hadn’t retired. Josh Smoker seemed a viable candidate, even with a high walk rate, because he was living up to his surname with 95-97 m.p.h. heaters. Conversely, I broke even with Joe Testa and Jimmy Barthmaier, both of whom spent more time in High-A than AA.

So what about this year? Well, one might think that having watched Potomac all last summer gives me an advantage. As we saw above, not necessarily and especially not when the P-Nats had the Carolina League’s worst pitching (yes, even with Alex Meyer and Nathan Karns). Then it becomes a challenge of setting aside the frustration/disappointment as a fan and donning the detachment of a prospect-follower.

We’ll see how it goes this time around. Like Syracuse, I’m picking fewer pitchers overall:

I’m well aware that I may have picked the wrong strong finisher named Matt (Grace vs. Swynenberg). I could be misreading Olbrychowski’s late callup (reward vs. favor). About the only thing I’m reasonably sure of are the repeats of Demny, Frias, and Selik (who is listed lower due to his lat injury) — but I was probably equally confident that Pena and VanAllen would repeat last year, too.

Like Brad Meyers, Sammy Solis is probably destined to begin the season on the D.L., though the prognosis from the scribes at Lake Wobegon^* sportswriters in Viera is, of course, sunny and upbeat.
^*Where the playoff chances are strong, the players are good looking, and everyone is in the best shape of their lives.

Otherwise, I will understand if folks might be less than thrilled with this collection of arms. But if I’m right about the 2013 position players, these guys won’t have to nurse a 3-2 lead as often as they’ll try to hold a 5-4 lead.