Minors Pitching Staff Analysis, Part Three
Since I’m going in order downward from AAA to Low-A, this is part three. In reality, this is the last roster to be finalized of the four full-season affiliates. Consequently, I’ve learned to keep my expectations in check when it comes to seeing marquee prospects in April. In the past seven seasons, it’s been two first-round picks — Ross Detwiler (2007) and Anthony Rendon (2012) and only one of those two was in uniform for the home opener.
Of course, I’m also the guy that roots for the lower-round guys to “figure it out” and make it higher up the ladder than anyone ever expected (e.g. Tommy Milone, Tyler Moore, Brad Peacock) so I’m not complaining. Really.
Still, as you can see from my picks last year, I did a pretty decent job of guessing who’d be in Woodbridge:
| STARTERS | SWINGMEN | RELIEVERS |
| Robbie Ray | Paul Applebee | Neil Holland |
| Matt Grace | Matt Swynenberg | Rob Wort |
| Brian Dupra | Ryan Demmin | Ben Graham |
| Alex Meyer | Trevor Holder | Dean Weaver |
| Kyle Winters | Mitchell Clegg | |
| Cameron Selik | ||
| Robert Gilliam | ||
| Erik Davis |
I picked 10 of 17 correctly, and was wrong on the usage on just one (blue). As with Harrisburg, there were two instances that would inevitably be wrong: Clegg, who was released; Weaver, who was hurt. I was perhaps too hopeful to see Meyer early, and as mentioned previously, misread Davis’s nosedive in 2011 (losing five of six starts after his demotion from AA). Dupra was simply an overreach, the kind of miss I don’t mind making.
We’ll see if I do so well next year with this collection of picks:
| STARTERS | SWINGMEN | RELIEVERS | D.L. |
| A.J. Cole | Christian Meza | Aaron Barrett | Paul Applebee |
| Robbie Ray | Matt Swynenberg | Colin Bates | |
| Taylor Hill | Richie Mirowski | ||
| Taylor Jordan | Greg Holt | ||
| Kylin Turnbull | Ben Hawkins | ||
| Matt Purke |
I wavered over Purke and will probably get that wrong, but I think there are more than few folks that would like to see him start in High-A and start living up to the hype. That’s not his fault, mind you. As mentioned yesterday, Swynenberg’s up and down season is another challenge to guess, not to mention that he’s started only a little more than half of his games as a pro. Barrett is another one I’d like to be wrong about, but history suggests that he’ll have to come back and put in a little more time at Potomac.
Next up: The fourth and final installment in this exercise of looking at the pitching candidates for Hagerstown.
This rotation will be the most interesting.
Every single pitcher had pretty miserable seasons last year. Cole turned it around, but only after a demotion. Purke barely had a chance to prove himself, but was knocked around when he did. Hill and Turnbull have disappointed, and shown few glimpses of their potential. Jordan is still recovering from TJ, and Ray’s 2011 and 2012 seasons were night and day.
This could wind up being one of the best rotations in the minors, or it could turn into one of the worst. There tons of potential, and it will be fun to see how it turns out.
Agree. If they live up to potential, this could be a really good rotation. But if they revert to last year’s form, the bullpen will be very busy. I think Purke will need a great March to be in Woodbridge in April.
Potnats staff with its collection of unfulfilled and dinged up seem to be the mound corp to watch out of all farm
corps.!