Guessing The Rosters, Part One
As threaten…er, promised: Time to take a guess at how the “middle minors” (A, A+ , AA) rosters will shake out in a couple of months.
First, let’s take a look at what I thought would be the 2012 Hagerstown lineup:
CA – Adrian Nieto
1B – Matt Skole
2B – Anthony Rendon
SS – Rick Hague
3B – Bryce Ortega
DH – Justin Miller
OF – Caleb Ramsey
OF – Brian Goodwin
OF – Angel Montilla
BCA – Jeremy Mayo
BIF – Justino Cuevas
BIF – Khayyan Norfork
BOF – Billy Burns
Well, there’s a reason why I use the word “guess” instead of “forecast” or “prediction” — just seven of the 13 were on the Opening Day roster (misses in red), and just four of the seven were in the right position/role (mistakes are in blue).
Where’d I go wrong? Easy. I underestimated the Nats’ insistence on keeping Skole at third, guessed wrong that Rendon wouldn’t crack the Potomac IF (might have helped if I knew Walters was hurt) and that his shoulder was well enough to handle 3B. I did not anticipate Hague, coming off an injury, would be slotted above Martinson.
I don’t agonize as much about the backups because it’s difficult to know (1) how the organization values Player A vs. Player B (2) who’s going to be put in extended spring training (3) who’s going to pack it in. The only surefire sign is being released or placed on the restricted list.
Without further ado, here’s my guess at the 2013 Suns:
CA – Kieboom
1B – Pleffner
2B – Renda
SS – S. Perez
3B – C. Lopez
OF – E. Martinez
OF – Ramos
OF – Mesa
DH – B. Miller
BCA – Manuel
BIF – Norfork
UT – McQuillan
BOF – Ramirez
I’m not terribly confident that I’ll do much better this time, especially with the injuries to Brandon Miller and Stephen Perez. The outfielders are a tough call, especially when I’m already sending up most of the Auburn OFs already and picking from a pool of guys like J.P. Ramirez, J.R. Higley, and Justin Miller.
It never seems to add up in early February, which perhaps is why I’m nonplussed.
Next up: Potomac. As always, feel free to discuss in the comments.
J.P. Ramirez has gone completely off the radar. to think he was once Bowden’s alternative to Aaron Crow
I must have missed it but what happened and how long are Perez and Miller out for?
B. Miller strained his hip, was out for six weeks; S. Perez various arm/shoulder/wrist strains that limited him to 28 games total last summer, plus he was nursing a sore elbow in the spring for Univ. of Miami.
Oh. I misinterpreted and thought you were referencing offseason injuries that would effect their playing time to start next season. Thanks for responding.
Yikes. That’s a pretty dire line up…
Last year for Hagerstown I got 13/25 on my prediction. The guys I guess would be there and werent were McGeary, Grisz, Bates, Hawkins, Lopez, McCatty, Jimenez, Burns, Norfolk, Palace, Alvarez, and Moore. Thoes I left our were Montilla, Ramirez, Holt, Barrett, Simko, Lucas, Kreis, Meza, Dykstra, Matinson, Leonida, McKenzie.
And here is my Hagerstown Suns roster prediction for this year.
Matt Purke
Brian Dupra
Dixon Anderson
Brett Mooneyham
Blake Monar
Brian Rauh
Derek Self
Robert Benincasa
Travis Henke
Cody Davis
Michael Boyden
Todd Simko
Shawn Pleffner
Tony Renda
Estarlin Martinez
Mike McQuillan
Craig Manuel
Wander Ramos
Narciso Mesa
Brandon Miller
Spencer Kieboom
Carlos Lopez
Wes Schill
William Piwinica-Worms
Carlos Alvarez
What are the chances that Difo(SS) and Foat(UT) make the jump? Solid seasons in GCL!
Unlikely. There were handful that finished the season in 2009 (Cuevas, Wort, Rosenbaum) and skipped Vermont in 2010, but since then, if a GCL guy didn’t get promoted in-season, he was either going to repeat, go to the NYPL, or get released.
Just saw from Amanda that Spencer Kieboom recently had TJ surgery. Looks like all your caveats about the risks of trying to make forecasts of OD lineups are already coming through.