Final Winter League Update

29 Commments

1. “WHIP” it
   “WHIP” it good
   Loving the strong numbers from the whole lot

   For the batters could you remind me again what GPA is?

   Who has a better crop of catching prospects than us?

   Larry Walker Tim Raines need to go to the Hall
   go ‘spos

   go Nats

2. The Hardball Times provides a great glossary of regular and advanced statistical acronyms.

   http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/#gpa

   GPA

   Gross Production Average, a variation of OPS, but more accurate and easier to interpret. The exact formula is (OBP*1.8+SLG)/4, adjusted for ballpark factor. The scale of GPA is similar to BA: .200 is lousy, .265 is around average and .300 is a star. A simple formula for converting GPA to runs is PA*1.356*(GPA^1.77).

3. GPA = Gross Production Average. It basically converts OPS into a BA scale, which is useful because OPS overvalues slugging and undervalues on-base percentage. You can read a little more about if you go to this link and do a find on “eschew,” where they explain it a little further.

   Catchers = We’re probably in the Top 5, but I’d have to say that Yankees (Montero, Romine) and Reds might be just a little deeper (Grandal, Mesaraco), based on lists that break out by position, though I will say that just about everybody overvalues offense and I’m old-school in that I could tolerate a light-hitting catcher that plays superb defense and calls a good game.

   Expos = I see no reason for the hate. The Expos, Pirates, Royals, and Orioles were the standards for homegrown talent in the 70s, 80s, and 90s and it’s tiresome to me to see the knee-jerk response to when I remind people of that fact.

4. I’m not so crazy about Henry Rodriguez’s 3.8 BB/9 stat against winter league competition. OTOH, Elvin Ramirez getting 1.85 BB/9 is much better than expected. Small sample size, of course. I expect that one of them will be on the roster Opening Day.

5. Hi Folks,
   I was in the neighborhood superbookstore and the new print edition of Baseball America has LOTS of Nationals news. It’s definitely worth everyone’s time to check it out.

   1. Thanks for the look. And if that superbookstore is a Borders, I hope you at least bought a cup of coffee. They’re ill managed, but I hope they don’t go bankrupt.

6. Where is Chris Marrero’s power? Eury Perez and Wilson Ramos numbers look great.

   I see Perez stole 21 bases, do you know how many attempts he had?

   The Maya WHiP is great too and hope that carries over to Spring Training!

   1. Michael: I believe Perez had 25 attempts.

   2. Chris Marrero’s power may be in the doctor’s office. Has he had the same power since he lost that season to the broken leg?

      1. I know I’ve posted it previously (and elsewhere), but I haven’t seen that raw power since 2007 (.545 at HGR, .431 at POT; .484 overall) — the year before he broke his leg. Since then he’s been at .453 (’08) .452 (’09) and .450 (’10) and at AA, it went from .387 to .450 from ’09 to ’10. The scouts say he’s not striding properly, and if they’re right… and if it can be fixed, then that power may come back. Traditional wisdom says that power is the last tool to develop anyway.

7. Also winding down is the signing period for Caribbean youngsters – I’ve been trying to follow all those – ended up with a list of 51 kids of note. The 51 started as the BA list of 33 prospects expected to sign for the most money, then added anyone who appeared as signed on the BA prospect blog since last July. Getting all the info is tough, have $$ values for only 32 of 44 signees. 7 of the top 33 have not signed. The most active teams this year are a bit surprising.

   Seattle far and away had the big haul, spending the most ($6.4m) and signing the most (7).

   Toronto spent $3.5m for 2, Houston $2,8 for 2, Pittsburgh $2.6 for 1, Oakland $2.2 for 6, The Yanks spent $1.6m for 2, St. Louie $1.5 for 1, KC $1.1 for 1 and Detroit $1.0 for 1. 13 other teams spent between $100k and $900k, in order (most $$ to least) Philly(3), Tampa(1), Texas(2), Twinkies(2), Cubs(1), Mets(4), ‘Zona(2), Rockies(1), Brewers(1), O’s(1), Reds(1), SD (1), Atlanta(1).

   Absent from thiis list Boston, ChiSox, Cleveland, Florida, Dodgers, Angels, SF,and naturally, DC.

8. Hmm, Rizzo’s first job as unofficial GM was to go to the Dominican and clean things up? What happened, there should be some signings? Or are they being extra careful given what happened under JimBo?

   1. I’ll let VH tag-team, but last I recall, there were still lawsuits pending and until those are all completed, I would expect the signings to be both modest and conservative.

      1. These are mainly just the $100k and up signings, think our last one was sort of in 2k8 – it was Elvin Cuello or Justino Cuevas. One of them was originally $100k but they found out he wasn’t who he really was and signed him nonetheless, but cheaper.

         FYI Eury Perez/Adrian Sanchez were in the 2k7 class (their 1st year playing with Nats) – probably signed late 2k6 as 16 yr olds.

9. To put another spin on the Winter Leagues, I’ll borrow one of Sue_D’s tools & toss up a G-B-I for players in the orginization…

   The Good:
   > Eury Perez [DWL]: Rookie of the Year with Escogido (see stat line above).
   > Yuniesky Maya [DWL]: Pitcher of the Year, also with Escogido (see above).

   The Bad:
   > Alberto Gonzalez [VWL]: Recorded a .223/.271/.319 ‘slash’ line, with 7 errors in 44GP as a SS-2B for Margarita.
   > Atahualpa Severino [DWL]: Posted a 9.64ERA, 1.86WHIP, .333BAA & an 0-2W-L as a LH specialist (20GP, 14.0IP) with Licey.

   The Interesting:
   > Wilson Ramos [VWL]: Hits for both average & power with Aragua (see above).
   > Hassan Pena [PWL]: Over 34.3IP in middle relief, records a 1.05ERA, 0.79WHIP, .157BAA with Ponce. Where did that come from?

   1. On Pena – Didn’t we have an earlier conversation where we talked about the PWL as being the weakest of the three leagues?

      1. Yes, we did. Those are still some silly numbers from a pitcher who’s never been on the radar. Additionally, if you try to discount for League strength, Marrero’s numbers look even worse; I didn’t want to go there.

10. Sue,

    I was reading your comment, “I know that several of the text blocks will have to change in a few weeks when the BA, Sickels, and McKamey books hit the street.”

    And I was wondering if you could instead of taking the text out just add it to the format. So we had what the BA said in 2010 and in 2011… But then I realized that this probably doesn’t solve your problem, because more text probably throws the pictures off…

    Anyway it would be cool to see what they have said in past years as well as present, but that might be way too much work.

    Thanks for doing all of this. It makes the winter go faster.

    Rich

11. Yes, it would be a lot of work; I’m also trying not to simply regurgitate what they say, but blend it with commentary while being succinct.

    I’m also wondering if I ought to stop after I finish the position players and then wait until the books come out for the pitchers, especially since I don’t feel comfortable writing about pitchers that I haven’t seen since the ’09 season or earlier (e.g. Meyers, Arnesen, Wilkie) — any thoughts, folks?

12. Sue_D:
    Regarding the updates, do what ever you’re most comfortable posting – It’s your space, and we’re just along for the ride (lapping up every word along the way).

    On the Expos animosity, I’ve never understood that. The team migrated to DC from Montreal, just like the Senators ver1.0 moved to Minnesota, and ver2.0 moved to Texas. The locals can still embrace their favorite players, but why some turn their backs on the history of the current franchise just eludes me.

13. Being a sports fan is a funny allegiance. I’m Canadian, a former diehard Expo fan who followed them from the beginning. Of course, I followed the minor leagues as well. When the Expos moved to Washington, there was never a question who my team would be–the Washington Nationals, not the Toronto Blue Jays.
    Just an aside–I remember coming in from the corn field (I was a farm boy) to watch Don Larson pitch his perfect game in the World Series.
    I’ve been a baseball fan for a long time and there’s no question–I’m as avid a Nats fan as any out there.

    1. Appreciate your support. I think it’s provincial and small minded for Senators fans to get upset when we express affection for the Expos and that aspect of the team’s legacy. I understand it’s painful having your team swiped, but you’d think that we could be generous to those Expos fans who still like our team.

       Have you seen that yahoo video on the Expos when the guys remixed the song?
       http://yhoo.it/eviLlU
       Ought to be mandatory videoing for anybody in the Natmosphere who wants to diss the ‘Spos.

    2. JCampbell, I understand where you’re coming from. While a lower-48’er myself, I had a great deal of respect for the Expos & followed their development over the years. From the early days of ‘Coco’ Laboy, “Le Grande Orange” & Steve Renko, through Dawson, Raines, Wallach, Carter, Walker, Dennis Martinez, Pedro, Reardon & others in the middle & later years. Good or bad in the W-L column, they were by-and-large well managed (Mauch, D. Williams, F.Alou, FRobby).

       I can only hope that some of the former Expos get better treatment in both Cooperstown & DC than they’ve recieved to date.

14. LaRoche is official now. I counted 43 guys on the big board. Does Stairs have a minor league deal or a major league deal? Mattheus doesn’t count against the 40-man right? Something procedural if I remember. So somebody’s got to go.

    Personally, I think it’s Huapa time and it’s Severino’s turn to try to clear waivers.

    1. Stairs has a minor-league deal, and Mattheus earns MLB $$ on a minor-league contract, IIRC. They’re both invited to camp.

       Toss Severino, JD Martin, Martis, Mock, & maybe Maxwell onto the “bottom-rung” with DC & see who hangs on, I guess.

15. Sue. One day I will write a book. as a Bill Lee youtube stream focuses on three late season HRs allowed between 1979 and 1981.
    Another extended ex-po connection for Kevin Barker signing- Rick Sweet worked with him @ LOU.
    1994 would have been World Series win if not for owners lock-out. three losing seasons between 1977 and 1994.
    One of my gripes has always been that Sizemore, Lee and Phillips would have made the first few years in DC more interesting.
    Perhaps we could say that Bryce Harper 9 not putting the cart before the horse may have a combination dna wise of part expo33 and Mr. Grady. I tear when I think of Felipe getting hosed with that greyhound 94 club where Butch Henry was the best pitcher down the stretch.
    those red white and blue uniforms would look much nicer with an upside down M compared to the Walgreen~s discount shopping tops ( to borrow an idea from Cubs Bob Brenly.
    So, the Nats still have the former angel infielder in a ball level?
    Good luck to Matt Antonelli whether he be at POTNats, or Burg.
    all quiet on the Pavano front?
    who here wants to do the math? Nats only surrender one pick ouit of all the free agent signings?? that one to Philly??? hopefully not a raging bull who sticks his horns in the Nats for 10-12 years.
    alex dickerson- Indiana Hoosiers. first team all-american probably in his third year NCAA.
    Purke does not come out of TCU until 2012??
    go pack!

16. Bin M. you forgot one of the best- saluted as a Kentucky Colonel when a skipper for Indpls. Indians- Buck Rodgers.
    crank up the trivia question about who has hit HRs from both sides of the dish in a game same game- FP Santangelo falls into that answer…
    winter ball is all about getting extra work in.,..who cares about the results…yet again…winter ball is also for some surf and cervesa..LOL!!!

17. BinM – Hassan’s been regularly hitting 97 mph on the gun. He’s been working hard and, now that he’s been healthy for some time now, the hard work is starting to pay off. His coach at Ponce, Pat Listach, loves him and there was some speculation that the cubs would rule 5 him. I’m glad they didn’t though as I want to see him in DC sometime soon. He’s a long shot for this year but you never know.

18. 18 years ago. Lee Stevens traded by angels to expos.
    Who here does this with the b.a. Top ten lists? Frame them and hang them in your
    Residence? I had to go to a 22×28 frame to fit two years of the dual page nats reports.
    Loved the one page years with compact information.
    Expos sure had. An advantage with felipe alou in the islands and south if the equator.
    a side thought with grey winter outside…imagine if the ants would have benefitted from
    The expos unloading Vladimir on the open market before zero two for a truckload of players…what would Los angels have had to surrender. Wow.
    Keep your hand on the mound, Michael rizzo!

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