Feb 082014
 


We finish this little exercise in killing time forecasting with a look at the Harrisburg Senators.

But first, let’s review my picks for last year’s 2013 AA squad (mistakes in red, wrong roles in blue, not quite right in purple):

CA – Jeff Howell
1B – Matt Skole
2B – Ricky Hague
SS – Jason Martinson
3B – Anthony Rendon
OF – Destin Hood
OF – Brian Goodwin
OF – Chris Rahl
DH/BIF – Justin Bloxom
BCA – Kris Watts
BIF – Sean Nicol
BIF – Francisco Soriano
BOF – Jimmy Van Ostrand

Even if you count my not-quite-right as wrong (Van Ostrand spent 76 of his 97 games at Harrisburg, but began the season in Syracuse), I got 9 out 13 right on making the team. If you cut me some slack, that’s the same success rate for how these guys were used. That’s quite a bit better than in 2012 where I only got six right without hedging (which I’ll have do this year, too, but for a much more valid reason).

This year’s squad won’t have quite the luster of three BA Top 10 players in the field as they did a year ago, but that should be more than offset by having (spoiler alert!) two Top 10 pitchers (okay, maybe not). Without further vamping, here’s my guess at the 2014 Senators:

CA – Adrian Nieto or Brian Jeroloman
1B – Matt Skole
2B – Ricky Hague
SS – Jason Martinson
3B – Cutter Dykstra
OF – Destin Hood
OF – Michael Taylor
OF – Theo Bowe
DH/1B – Kevin Keyes
BCA – Jeroloman or Cole Leonida
BIF – Adrian Sanchez
BIF – Sean Nicol
BOF – Caleb Ramsey

As you can see, I’m waffling at the catcher slots because, historically, there’s a very good chance that Nieto will be returned to Washington. And even Jeroloman isn’t a sure thing with all the backup catchers the Nats have been stockpiling. I’m presuming Sandy Leon will finally begin the season at AAA (which I won’t pick because it’s just too unpredictable) but it’s not unfathomable for him to come back to City Island, which is my pick (unfortunately, for their sakes) for five players.

Otherwise, I’m fairly confident Brian Goodwin and Steven Souza will move up another level. But for any other position player, I don’t have the answer to “What about __________?” Remember, this is a guessing game.

Unfortunately, as we saw yesterday in the comments, it’s also a realization that some players may have hit the end of their road. Once I get to the bench, it’s trying to divine which of last year’s bench guys will hang it up or go to Syrcause and which of the guys from Potomac will move up but shift into backup roles. The alternatives are being sent to XST, hidden placed on the DL (often the same thing) or getting released.

As always, hope folks enjoyed this little diversion. Judging by the Twitter reaction to the signing of an aging middle reliever, it’s obvious that folks can no longer stand to wait for Spring Training to begin.

  3 Responses to “Guessing The Rosters, Part Three”

  1. Boy, everytime I see our minor league position players, I think we have the worst system in baseball. Then comes the pitching and I am much more encouraged.

  2. Well, Soriano did play 10 games for Harrisburg. If he comes back to Potomac this year that would tie him with Brian Peacock for 5 years with the PNats. Always thought these loyal organizational soldiers ought to get some kind of reward for service. Agree with the adage that you ‘make them tear that uniform off your back’. For Peacock, the dream ended after 8 years in the minors.

    It’s almost impossible to forecast catching at this level until we know when & if Nieto comes back.

    • Still short of Carlos Martinez’s six-year run (2006-2011)

      Catching forecast… stocky, big thighs, doesn’t run well, but can throw… kthxbai

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