Feb 072013
 

Picking up from yesterday, let’s take a look at what I thought the 2012 Potomac Nationals position players would be:

CA – David Freitas
1B – Brett Newsome
2B – Adrian Sanchez
SS – Zach Walters
3B – Jason Martinson
OF – Michael Taylor
OF – Kevin Keyes
OF – Randolph Oduber
DH – Blake Kelso
BCA – Cole Leonida
BIF – Sean Nicol
BIF – Cutter Dykstra
BOF – J.P. Ramirez

Roughly the same as Hagerstown: 7-for-13, with a couple of positions wrong. Walters opened the season on the DL but was playing SS by the end of the month. We now know this was because he had a hamate-bone surgery. Kelso ended up playing 3B for roughly half the season, but this isn’t the American League, either.
The prediction of DH is one you can’t really get right or wrong in the minors because it’s not used the same way (e.g. Wade Moore was the DH on Opening Day for the P-Nats; Kevin Keyes was the LF).

Some mistakes flow from the misses I made with the Suns (Martinson instead of Rendon) but most were that I did not anticipate so many guys getting dropped down (Ramirez, Dykstra, Souza) and overestimated a couple of Hagerstown guys getting moved up (Leonida, Newsome). Nice to know now, but not sure if I’m not going to repeat those mistakes with this crew:

CA – Nieto
1B – Keyes
2B – Dykstra
SS – Ortega
3B – Sanchez
OF – Burns
OF – Taylor
OF – Souza
DH – Ramsey
BCA – Leonida
BIF – J. Miller
BIF – Kelso
BOF – Oduber

What makes this roster tough to call is that it’s the last one to get filled out. That might not make sense to the casual fan, but think of it this way: Low-A is for the draft picks in Auburn (mostly) and the GCL (rarely) that progressed as hoped the summer before. Triple-A is for the major-league replacements and the experienced prospects (some elite, some not). Double-A is for the medium-experience prospects (ideally, guys in their second full year of pro ball). High-A is something of a dog’s breakfast: the occasional elite first-year prospect, some second-year collegiate players, a lot of guys in their third year of pro ball, etc.

The net result is that there is something of a “pushdown” effect (though it tends to affect the “OGs” more than the prospects). Frequently it goes something like this: A triple-A free agent blocks a guy at AA that might have gotten a shot, who in turn, blocks a High-A guy from making the jump, etc., etc.

There are more repeats here than in Hagerstown, which may have been a mistake in and of itself, but I also went out on a limb with the trio of Matt Skole, Martinson, and Ricky Hague (spoiler alert for the next post). Odds are very good that I’m going to miss one or two there, but I’d rather skew too optimistic in this case, even if I probably ought to be more like Det. Sherman than the Littles (1:36 to 2:04).

As always, feel free to discuss in the comments. And don’t forget that the players, their families, and their agents are reading, too ;-)

  3 Responses to “Guessing The Rosters, Part Two”

  1. This might be the first year I would take the Hagerstown Suns over the PNats straight up in a game. Lots of “Dead weight” in this roster, which is indicative of our farm system. I wish you were as optimistic with some of the guys that you have in Hagerstown as you were with Skole, Martinson, and Hague. ( I do agree with all three though)

  2. Last year for Potomac I got 18/25 and was missing Smoker, Eusebio, Hansen, Grace, Skelton, Palace, Soriano, Curran, and Moore.

    • And here is my Potomac roster prediction

      Robbie Ray
      Taylor Jordan
      A.J. Cole
      Blake Schwartz
      Matt Grace
      Christian Meza
      Colin Bates
      Richiw Mirowski
      Ben Hawkins
      Paul Applebee
      Ryan Demmin
      Matt Swynenberg
      Kevin Keyes
      Bryce Ortega
      Blake Kelso
      Khayyan Norfork
      Adrian Nieto
      Billy Burns
      Caleb Ramsey
      Michael Taylor
      Cutter Dykstra
      Erick Fernandez
      J.R. Higley
      Justin Miller
      Randolph Oduber

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