So let’s take a spin through a tumultuous year and do a little let’s remember…
IFA Spending Spikes Again
A year ago, it looked like the Nats were spreading their “eggs” over multiple baskets after several high-priced gambles. Some paid off (Juan Soto). Others didn’t (Yasel Antuna). And there are others for which the jury is still out (Armando Cruz, Cristhian Vaquero). This past January, the pendulum swung back with $2.8M spent on Victor Hurtado and $1.7M on Angel Feliz. The combined $4.7M would be more than 75% all of the Nats’ International bonus pool.
Cade Cavalli: Training with Sidd Finch?
After developing Nats elbow in 2023 spring training, Cavalli was expected to return to the majors by the 2024 All-Star Break. Instead, he made three appearances spaced 10 and 22 days apart in May and June and then disappeared. There was talk of him having the flu and dead arm, both of which do not pass the sniff test, given the Nats’ long history of lying obfuscation. Allegedly, he ran out of season and was about to pitch again in late September, though his absence from the Arizona Fall League begs the question ‘Why didn’t he appear here?’
Travis Sykora: The Next Coming Thing
The Nats’ 3rd Rd. pick in 2023 did not pitch in the regular season, which is now becoming more common… and more frustrating for prospect-watchers. It was worth the wait, though, as the turning-20-y.o. debuted in Fredericksburg and made 22 starts, including the first six innings of a combined no-hitter and the first five innings of the Mills Cup Title Game. Sykora struck out 129 over 85 regular-season innings, which was a minors-leading 39.2% K rate (13.66/9IP), and only walked 27 (2.86) while giving up two (2) HRs.
Fredericksburg Wins the Carolina League Championship
In a painful reminder that the goal is to develop first, win second, Sykora’s 20 brilliant starts were offset by 21 starts of Travis “Sunday” Sthele. Not fun fact: Sthele won six, Sykora five. A 39-win second half combined with a strong bullpen and an improved offense led the F-Nats to its first Mills Cup title since 2014, which ended a ten-year title drought for the Nats minors.
James Wood Graduates; Dylan Crew Does Not
The pundits liked Crews more than Wood while this community favored Wood over Crews. In the short term, so did the Nats as the 21-y.o. Wood was promoted in July and amassed 300+ PA while the 22-y.o. Crews got the bump in late August and justavoided the ROY cutoff. In the long term, we can hope that the two will be written up like Gold Dust Twins in Boston or the Killer B’s in Pittsburgh.
The Other #1 Picks
While the Nats fandom will be giddy with the prospect of getting a 1-1 pick for the third time since the franchise relocated from Montreal, it might be worth remembering that not all 1st Round picks pan out. Case in point: Mason Denaburg, the 2018 1st. Rd. pick who only made it to High-A as a 25th-birthday present and was released last month. The pandemic and Nats elbow had him resume his career at Low-A at the age of 22, effectively negating his HS status. After what appeared to be a breakthrough 2023 (8-4 across AA and AAA and four MLB starts), Jackson Rutledge, the Nats’ 2019 1st Rd. pick, reverted to the mean in 2024, struggling to keep his ERA below 7 in 27 AAA starts. He’s still on the 40-man but seems unlikely to stay in Washington for more than a few weeks.
T.J. White and Elijah Green
While the Nats have been more amenable to drafting H.S. players in the New World Order, the foibles of T.J. White (5th Rd. ’21) and Elijah Green (1st Rd. ’22) should serve as a reminder that the higher ceiling is not without risk. White and Brady House were seen in 2021-22 as a possible prospect duo like Crews and Wood. Instead, only House has risen while White has stalled at High-A the past two seasons. It’s a similar story with Green, who has done the same at Low-A despite tools that are very bit as good as advertised. 2025 could prove to be a pivotal year for both to regain some luster.
Gentle Parenting in Wilmington and Harrisburg (No Hitting)
Sure, there were some exceptions but the Nats’ High-A and AA teams were dreadful, both averaging less than four runs per game. Yes, there were large groups in Fredericksburg who also had trouble finding water after falling off a pier, but it was far more noticeable in the two levels above. The Senators had such good pitching that they nearly won the first half despite a differential of just six runs. The Blue Rocks, however, did not and finished last in both halves.
Evaluating the Draft without the Short Season
For 2024, the complex leagues began in early May and ended in late July, which effectively shut out most of the Draft picks from appearing in the same season, given the short gap between when the draft was over (July 16) and when the FCL and AZL ended play (July 2025). What remains to be seen for 2025 is whether the concern was truly about protecting draftees’ arms (due to the limit of players under contract reduced to 165) or whether it was about a Rule 5 loophole (e.g., placing a signee onto a team after a season is over) that hadn’t been closed yet. If it’s former, the change could be permanent; if it’s latter, then we could have a more “normal” domestic short season in 2025.
Breakout Pitching Seasons
I’m sure folks may chime in with others, but two stood out in 2024. The first was Andry Lara, who was saddled with high expectations with a $1.25M signing bonus in 2019, but did not produce the kinds of numbers one would expect from a guy ranked in the Top 5 by MLB Pipeline from 2020 to 2022 before tumbling to #15 in 2023. Things clicked in ’24, as the 21-y.o. made it to AA and posted a 3.63/4.41/1.19 line in 19 starts. The second was Brad Lord, who pitched at three levels (though only one start at High-A), with a stellar 1.40/3.05/1.03 mark over 12 AA starts and a more down-to-earth 3.93/3.81/1.39 in 12 AAA starts. Lord turns 25 in February and could very well have @sshole start spelling his name BrAAAAd Lord by August. Or he could called up like Jake Irvin and unexpectedly stick.