Finishing up the Top 100 posts, which appears to be the replacemement for the hot stove like a space heater, Keith Law ranked four Nationals in his Top 100 MLB Prospects 2024 ($).
Dylan Crews – 7
As I did a year ago, we can skip to what Law has to say:
When he was playing with Double-A Harrisburg, pitchers were able to mess with his timing by changing speeds, even getting him to cut through some fastballs in the upper half of the zone, so there are some adjustments for him to make before he races to the majors. It might slow his progress by a few weeks, but his ceiling as a hitter who’s among the league leaders in all three triple-slash categories while playing up the middle or playing plus defense in a corner is still there.
Both hands on the keyboard.
James Wood – 19
Law correctly predicted Wood’s 2023 contact issues (27% K rate at A+, 34% at AA) in last year’s assessment. This year…
He’s every bit of 6-6, maybe even 6-7 at this point, and between his height and how hard he swings, he’s going to have some whiff; the challenge for him and the Nats will be cutting it down to a manageable level so he hits enough to get to that 40-homer power and isn’t an OBP liability. My guess is there isn’t much middle ground here; the ceiling is that middle-of-the-order offense in a plus right fielder or 50/55 centerfielder, while the floor is another guy who can’t cut his K rate below 30 percent and bounces around for years as teams hope to catch lightning in a tall bottle.
That should probably answer any questions about why he wasn’t ranked higher.
Brady House – 53
Law is worried about his pitch-recognition skills and his aggression, pointing to very low walk rate (6.9%) and has some doubts on defense:
He’s awkward at third base at times because he’s so big, but he’s got plenty of arm and when I’ve seen him he’s made the routine plays. He doesn’t have to become a high-walk guy to be an above-average regular — stay at third and up the in-game power and he’ll get there even with a 5 percent walk rate, because he already hits the ball pretty hard and can get the ball in the air, if sometimes too much. There are a number of paths to success here as long as he can tighten up the pitch recognition.
Still no word on whether or not he had surgery in 2022.
Cade Cavalli – 74
Law is still high on him, dropping him only three spots despite undergoing TJ surgery last year.
Prior to the injury, he showed size, stuff, athleticism, and the need to work on command and sequencing, things that you hope would come with more repetitions. He’s got easy plus velocity on the fastball and works with a four-pitch mix highlighted by a curveball that has power and depth and moves in a different direction than his other pitches, allowing him to play more with sequencing to change hitters’ eye levels and expectations. He has a solid changeup that he uses primarily against left-handed batters, with almost no platoon split in 2022, and a short slider that’s hard and cutter-like in shape and function. Once he returns at some point this spring, he’ll be working to regain his feel, but also to pound the zone more and work on mixing his pitches more effectively. He still has that mid-rotation, innings-eater upside, assuming anyone even remembers what that means at this point.
Unfortunately, I was right that only an injury would prevent Cavalli from making the 2023 Opening Day roster. In a related story, ESPN has learned the sun will rise in the eastern sky.
In all seriousness, I certainly hope Law is right, even if it raises expectations among the 2019ers (a.k.a. MASN Commenters). Should the Nationals play well enough to be within striking distance of a wild card slot, getting Cavalli back to DC might be worth as much as any trade-deadline pickup.