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.435 — 10 for ’23

James “Tip” O’Neill, who batted .435 in 1887
With the month January—which, with all apologies to T.S. Eliot, is the cruelest month for prospect-following—almost upon us and 2023 almost behind us, let’s take a look at the ten stories that defined the year.

In keeping with this site’s tradition of not ranking, these are or more or less in chronological order…

A More “Normal” Set of IFAs

After years of going big, the Nats appear to be going home (or back) to their roots of spreading their IFA outlay over a larger number of picks instead of going all-in on one guy (e.g., Antuna, Soto, Lara, Cruz, Vaquero). This was probably yet another example of penny-wise/pound-foolish management that seems to be legion with the Nats, if not all of baseball. But you can argue with the results (see below).

Cade Cavalli Develops Nats Elbow

Last summer, the Nats shut down Cavalli twice in-season and then permanently after his one (and so far, only) MLB start. This despite being limited to five innings or less 15 times in 21 appearances. Then in the spring, Cavalli did the all-too-familiar elbow shake and circle behind the mound in his third (and final) spring training appearance. A week later, he had TJ surgery.

Brady House Has The Quietest Three-Level Season Ever

Well, maybe not, but with all eyes on James Wood and Dylan Crews, who also technically had a three-level season but received far more fanfare, Brady House flew under the radar with 88 games across three different levels with his lowest BA (.297) coming at Low-A while batting .318 at High-A and .324 at AA. And it wasn’t like he wasn’t hitting for power, either, with SLG% of .500, .540, and .475. We never did quite learn what ended his 2022 season but as noted in the comments, his workload was carefully managed with only one stretch of four games in a row (the last four).

James Wood: HR Threat

Sure, the Nats have had HR hitters in the minors… but they’ve usually been 30-somethings like Yadiel Hernández or BrAAAAndon Snyder. Woods hit 26, which is the most in the franchise by a 20-y.o. since Cliff Floyd, who hit 28 in 1993. Of course, thanks to ↓this guy↓ missing six weeks, he also led the Nats minors in whiffs with 173 – the most since Jason Martinson in 2016 (179).

Elijah Green: Keeping Opposing IFs Cool

As you might’ve already guessed: Green led the Nats minors with a stunning 41.6% K rate… and yet was also 5th in BB rate at 14.4% and tied for 4th in SBs (31) despite playing just 83 games at Low-A and the FCL. Yes, he’s only 20 years old [insert Billy Rowell joke here] but it will take a phenomenal improvement to make that many whiffs acceptable, especially with such little power (.327 SLG%) to go along with it.

A Modest Sell-off in July

After two straight Julys in which the Nats dealt away a generational talent, a stud starting pitcher, and a franchise SS, the modest two-player return (DJ Herz, Kevin Made) from flipping a one-year rental (Jeimar Candelario) is a bit of a letdown. It may still be a while before the Nats are buyers instead of sellers, though one can certainly hope that the coming wave of OFs might enable the Nats to deal away anyone who might be blocking them.

The Comically Bad DSL Team

At first it was funny. Then it was sad. Then it became sublime. The 2023 D-Nats finished 11-39 and 28½ games off the pace in the DSL South, “thanks” to a team that could only manage to scrape 3.19 R/G. That was more than two full runs below the Lg. Avg. of 5.45 R/G. Only a handful of players were retained from 2022 and though this team was very young, it’s hard not to envision the Nats doing the same again in 2024.

Unlikely MLB Debuts

Or the three Jakes. OK, maybe you can ascribe Alu to the Nats’ fetish for utility guys, but Irvin? The guy who didn’t pitch in 2020 or 2021? Quite unexpected, a serviceable 24 starts even more so. Or Jacob Young? Granted, he had the good fortune of being the next man up when injuries depleted both the outfields of both the big club and AAA, but like the OJ’s (other Jakes), he acquitted himself with a .658 OPS with 13 stolen bases in 33 games. Unlike Irvin and Alu, he didn’t exhaust his rookie status, so he’ll get one more Watchlist appearance. That, along with $3, gets him a coffee.

Jackson Rutledge

As a #1 pick, Rutledge was given every possible chance to succeed. But for all of 2021 and most of 2022, it looked like he and Mason Denaburg would be fighting over beerholding, iykwim. Some @sshole even He began 2023 in AA, skipping past High-A despite spending all of ’22 at Low-A. After six quality starts out of 12, and (*gasp*) five or more innings pitched in 11 straight appearances, he was bumped up to AAA. The 24-y.o. was less steady but only got knocked out early once. That was good enough to pitch in D.C. for his last four starts, two of which were good and two of which were not. Now, if you’ll excuse me, I need to go wash some egg off my face.

Dylan Crews

Rather than close out this list with a story of epic failure (*cough* Yasel Antuna *cough*), I’ll write about the latest “coming thing,” that has been the hallmark of covering this system for the past 14 years. Strasburg, Harper, Rendon, Giolito, etc. Crews was also a three-level player, though just barely with one (1) game in the FCL before a 14-game tour with the FredNats and closing out the summer with 20 games for the Senators. Crews feasted on Low-A pitching (1.068 OPS) and was carved up by AA pitchers (.595 OPS, 19K in 20G), neither of which was a surprise to scouts, who have long noted that Crews has swing-and-miss tendency that he offsets well with good plate discipline (i.e., when he swings and missed it’s usually within the strike zone anyway). Fatigue could also be a factor, given that the 21-y.o. surpassed 100 games in a season for the first time in his career.

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