First, let’s take a look at what I thought would be the 2012 Hagerstown lineup:
CA – Adrian Nieto
1B – Matt Skole
2B – Anthony Rendon
SS – Rick Hague
3B – Bryce Ortega
DH – Justin Miller
OF – Caleb Ramsey
OF – Brian Goodwin
OF – Angel Montilla
BCA – Jeremy Mayo
BIF – Justino Cuevas
BIF – Khayyan Norfork
BOF – Billy Burns
Well, there’s a reason why I use the word “guess” instead of “forecast” or “prediction” — just seven of the 13 were on the Opening Day roster (misses in red), and just four of the seven were in the right position/role (mistakes are in blue).
Where’d I go wrong? Easy. I underestimated the Nats’ insistence on keeping Skole at third, guessed wrong that Rendon wouldn’t crack the Potomac IF (might have helped if I knew Walters was hurt) and that his shoulder was well enough to handle 3B. I did not anticipate Hague, coming off an injury, would be slotted above Martinson.
I don’t agonize as much about the backups because it’s difficult to know (1) how the organization values Player A vs. Player B (2) who’s going to be put in extended spring training (3) who’s going to pack it in. The only surefire sign is being released or placed on the restricted list.
Without further ado, here’s my guess at the 2013 Suns:
CA – Kieboom
1B – Pleffner
2B – Renda
SS – S. Perez
3B – C. Lopez
OF – E. Martinez
OF – Ramos
OF – Mesa
DH – B. Miller
BCA – Manuel
BIF – Norfork
UT – McQuillan
BOF – Ramirez
I’m not terribly confident that I’ll do much better this time, especially with the injuries to Brandon Miller and Stephen Perez. The outfielders are a tough call, especially when I’m already sending up most of the Auburn OFs already and picking from a pool of guys like J.P. Ramirez, J.R. Higley, and Justin Miller.
It never seems to add up in early February, which perhaps is why I’m nonplussed.
Next up: Potomac. As always, feel free to discuss in the comments.