have very few ideas on how to kill the time see no reason why we have to wait. Let’s take a crack at guessing the A-ball teams like we did a year ago.
Speaking of which, let’s take a look at my guess for the Hagerstown position players last February:
CA – David Freitas
1B – Mills Rogers
2B – Adrian Sanchez
SS – Jason Martinson
3B – Blake Kelso
OF – Randloph Oduber
OF – J.R. Higley
OF – Wade Moore
DH – Russell Moldenhauer
BCA – Wilfri Pena
BIF – Justino Cuevas
BIF – Michael Taylor
BOF – Justin Miller
Eight out of 13 made the Opening Day roster. Seven out of nine for the Opening Day lineup. So where’d I go wrong (red)? The first mishap is pretty easy: I was convinced the Harper talk to Hagerstown was bluster. Therefore, Higley staying behind made sense, especially after a suspension-shortened 2010. Most of the others misses were simply wrong guesses, plain and simple.
So what’s the forecast for 2012 for the Suns position players*? Without further ado, here’s my guess:
CA – Adrian Nieto
1B – Matt Skole
2B – Anthony Rendon
SS – Rick Hague
3B – Bryce Ortega
DH – Justin Miller
OF – Caleb Ramsey
OF – Brian Goodwin
OF – Angel Montilla
BCA – Jeremy Mayo
BIF – Justino Cuevas
BIF – Khayyan Norfork
BOF – Billy Burns
…Just two of the four 2011 Hagerstown pitchers that started more than 17 games are fully healthy that we know of — Robbie Ray and Matt Grace. The third is Taylor Jordan. The fourth is A.J. Cole.
…Eight pitchers in Auburn started five or more games. The three that started the most (Wirkin “For The Weekend” Estevez, Manny Rodriguez, and Christian Meza) weren’t lights out, and at least one will repeat the level.
…There are two prominent draft picks that are more likely to pitch full-season than short-season but are 22 years old (Alex Meyer and Kylin Turnbull)
…Two of the 2011 Suns starters were hurt and missed two months or more (Bobby Hansen, Chris McKenzie) and at least one is likely to be back.
…Three of the ’11 college pitchers drafted will be 23 years old by Opening Day (Brian Dupra, Blake Monar, and Taylor Hill) and it’s a good bet that one of them will leapfrog from Auburn to Potomac.
Translation: Way too many variables to make a remotely accurate guess.
I think you can see I’m anticipating some position changes. You can flip-flop Rendon and Ortega or Ortega and Hague. But I do think that the Potomac IF logjam is going to make it easier to start Rendon lower than High-A and I think that same “problem” is going to lead to Hague taking a step back before moving forward. If I’m wrong about one or both, then the only logical conclusion is that one of the ’11 Suns IFers repeats or gets sent to XST.
Believe me, I like that it’s this difficult to call. Certainly a lot more fun than guessing which organizational soldier will go where. As always, discuss in the comments… Next time: It’s a look at Potomac.