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Danny Rosenbaum DOB: 10/10/87 Ht. 6’1″ Wt. 210 Bats: R Career Stats |
With the trade of Milone, Rosenbaum becomes the most accomplished LH starter in the Nats minors. A workhorse (171⅓IP) in ’11, he saw his velo jump into the low 90s but had to repeat at Potomac to master his control. Has the knack to get batters out regardless of whether he has his “A” game. Throws a FB, CT, CH and will spot a CV. |
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Sammy Solis DOB: 8/10/88 Ht. 6’5″ Wt. 230 Bats: R Career Stats |
Injuries have dogged Solis in his two years in the organization, delaying his ascent that had him in DC in ’12 per BA, et al. Has a tendency to leave his pitches up, which even A-ball hitters can punish and was shown with a pedestrian AFL showing. Works w/ a FB/CH/CV arsenal, often changing the speed and arc of the curve like a fireballer dials up and down the heat. UPDATE: Solis is the latest Nats prospect to undergo TJ surgery (3/12), which will likely sideline him until early in the 2013 season. |
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Robbie Ray DOB: 10/1/91 Ht. 6’2″ Wt. 170 Bats: L Career Stats |
His fastball hasn’t been clocked above 92 since ’09, when he hit 95 in some of the HS showcases. Scouts are mixed as to whether the velo will come back. Given its natural sink, whether that matters is another question, especially with his plus change, an improving slider, and strong peripherals. Scouts point to some difficulty with repeating his delivery, which if/when solved, might “fix” his velocity. |
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Matt Grace DOB: 12/14/88 Ht. 6’3″ Wt. 190 Bats: L Career Stats |
Grace led the Suns in wins, IP, and GS with a 5.17ERA and 1.564WHIP. Given his experience as a lefty specialist at UCLA, it would not surprise me if he’s sent to Potomac and put back in the bullpen. He is, after all, still lefthanded and he does throw strikes (2.6BB/9IP). |
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Matt Purke DOB: 7/17/90 Ht. 6’4″ Wt. 180 Bats: L Career Stats |
When healthy, Purke features a low-to- mid 90s FB and a plus low-80s SL. Like Detwiler, he has a history of dropping his arm slot and throwing across his body, flattening his stuff. Initially, he was thought to be a candidate for working out of the ‘pen but his work in spring training and assignment to Potomac are both indicators he’ll be starting for the P-Nats. |
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Christian Meza DOB: 12/14/88 Ht. 6′ Wt. 185 Bats: L Career Stats |
The #5 Auburn arm makes the list because he’s young, lefthanded, and keeps the ball in the yard. Doesn’t throw hard, but has a deceptive motion coming from the 3/4 slot. With improved control, could make for a decent MR or LOOGY. |
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Hector Silvestre DOB: 12/14/92 Ht. 6’3″ Wt. 180 Bats: L Career Stats |
Another one of the ’11 IFAs, Silvestre’s last seven appearances were as a starter. He went 2-0 with a 1.75ERA over that stretch, though he struggled some with his control (17BB in 36IP). Not invited to the FIL. Could just as easily repeat DSL as go to the GCL in 2012. |
Mesa and Silvestre didn’t get invited to instrux. So, why do they make the list over guys like Gregori Baez, Jack McGeary, and Blake Monar who did?
Getting invited to instrux helps, but it’s no longer a guaranteed nod. That was one of the mistakes I made last year. Meza and Silvestre were both Top 5 pitchers or players for their level. Monar only pitched ten (10) innings. McGeary only pitched 16 and is coming off TJ surgery. Baez is young, but his numbers for the GCL were below league average.
I’m not buying the innings pitched logic as you included other recent draft picks that didn’t log a single inning. Regardless, ranking recruits is never an exact science, but I’d say the organization thinks more highly of those invited to instructs vs. those in similar positions that weren’t. I guess only time will tell.
Two of those three (3) pitchers that fall into the category of ’11 picks with no regular-season IP are Top 10 prospects for the entire organization. The other is Kylin Turnbull, a 4th-round pick with one collegiate season as a reliever, one as a starter.
As you commented, this is not an exact science, nor do I claim to be professional at anything here except as a writer. But I’m fairly comfortable with my decision to pass on 12th-rd pick with an injury history, lefthanded or not. Ultimately, once the games begin, this becomes an afterthought until mid-September.