Rule 5 Pick Danny Rosenbaum Returned

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Mar 242013
 

Another day, another Rule 5 pick returned.

Multiple online sources are reporting that Colorado will return Danny Rosenbaum following the signing of veteran RHP Jon Garland. Rosenbaum was 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP in six appearances for the Rockies this spring, the last of which came a week ago when the 25-year-old southpaw gave up a single and a walkoff home run in a 9-7 loss to the Giants.

He had been competing for the final bullpen spot — five of his six outings were in relief — in a group of relievers that included notables such as Chris Volstad and Manny Corpas.

Like Kobernus, he’s expected to be reassigned to minor-league camp, but it’s much less clear where he’ll begin the season. Last season was arguably his worst, beginning with 7-2, 1.94 in his first 13 starts, but finishing in a freefall of 1-8, 6.54 in his last 13 starts for an 8-10, 3.94 mark overall.

While often compared to former Nats farmhand Tommy Milone, a comp that seems largely based on size (both are shade taller than 6′ with a “sturdy carriage”) and dexterity and the soft-tosser perception. The reality is that Rosenbaum has always thrown harder than Milone (low-90s vs. high-80s), but with a little less control (2.5 vs. 1.5 BB/9).

Still, it’s a understandable linkage because both have shown the ability to get guys out without lot of flash while pitching deep into games (e.g. 171⅓ IP in 2011). Rosenbaum works off a heavy, sinking fastball, which has produced groundball rates of 50%-plus the past two seasons, including 56.7% last year, while mixing in a cutter as well as a changeup and a curve as his secondary pitches.

Like a lot of the AA and AAA pitchers, it’s difficult to predict where he’ll begin the season given the signings of multiple free agents. What’s probably more certain is that he’ll return to starting, given his durability and track record.

The watchlist and the LHPs page have been both been updated to reflect his return.

Rule 5 Pick Jeff Kobernus Returned

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Mar 232013
 

Well, it looks like yesterday’s reports were wrong: the Tigers have returned Rule 5 pick Jeff Kobernus to the Nationals.

Kobernus hung a line of .220/.298/.300 in 50ABs for Detroit in 21 games while attempting to make the 25-man roster as a utilityman. The 24-year-old made appearances in all three outfield positions, playing there for the first time since his collegiate days at California.

Officially, he’s been reassigned to minor-league camp but is expected to open the season in Syracuse after an injury-shortened 2012 in Harrisburg. He played in 82 games for the Senators and hit .282/.325/.333 with 42 SBs with a career-best .982 fielding average.

The watchlist and the second baseman page have been both been updated to reflect his return.

Checking In On The Nats MLB Rule 5 Picks

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Mar 052013
 

Checkin In On The MLB Rule 5 PicksWith an off day yesterday, I wasn’t sure if I’d have something to write about this morning until one of the regulars asked me about Danny Rosenbaum and Jeff Kobernus.

Truth be told, it was the first time I had checked because I’m not rooting for them to falter so “we can have them back.” For both players, this is their first (and best) chance to make a major-league roster, even if it’s just briefly like Erik Komatsu’s two-team tour in 2012.

Rosenbaum has made just two appearances thus far for a total of four scoreless innings with two hits and one walk allowed and no strikeouts. Thanks to a start last Friday, his opposition quality score is 9.2 (H/T to NatsLady for pointing out this feature on already indispensable baseball-reference.com).

As you can see from the gamer in the Colorodoan, Danny was paying attention to Crash Davis:

“They told me they see me more as a long relief guy. I’ve always been a starter in college and my whole career and coming out of the ‘pen will be different. But it’s pitching and it’s the same game. However they think I can help, I want to do that,” he said.

He’s scheduled to pitch again today in relief as well.

As a position player, Kobernus has gotten a much longer look as noted in this feature from the Detroit Free Press. He’s batting .280/.308/.440 with a lower Opposition Quality score (8.4) because he’s been left in games against the reserves of other teams.

While Rosenbaum can be “hidden” in the ‘pen as a long reliever or a backup LOOGY, Kobernus has no such luxury as a bench player. That’s why the Tigers are trying him in the outfield, where he hasn’t played since his college days at Cal. Kobernus is competing against a pair of 21-year-old prospects — Nick Castellanos and Avisail Garcia — who, of course, can be returned to the minors for more seasoning, even if they are the #1 and #2 prospects per Baseball America.

Rule 5: Who Went

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Dec 062012
 

For the second straight year, two Nationals were selected during the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft — LHP Danny Rosenbaum and 2B Jeff Kobernus.

Rosenbaum was selected third by the Colorado Rockies. Colorado Rockies blog Purple Row describes the selection:

Rosenbaum will compete for a bullpen job vacated by Matt Reynolds. Josh Outman had been penciled in as the second lefty in the bullpen, joining Rex Brothers, but this move allows Outman to start, or for Colorado to have three lefties in their pen.

Kobernus was taken seventh by the Boston Red Sox, then subsequently traded to the Detroit Tigers for 28-year-old AAA utilityman Justin Henry. Not coincidentally, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was quoted via MLB.com’s Justin Beck:

We not only like his ability to play second, but we think that perhaps — and he hasn’t really done much of it — he could have some versatility where we might be able to move him to the outfield and get some playing time there

In the 1st round of the AAA phase, the Red Sox “struck” again by taking Boston native Jack McGeary, while Hector Nelo was taken by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second round. Unlike the MLB phase, these players do not have to be offered back to the original club.

McGeary had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and has only pitched 25⅓ innings in 2011 and 2012 — all but 7⅔ innings in the GCL. He was originally drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 draft.

Nelo was signed as a minor-league free agent in April 2011 after being released by the Texas Rangers. While capable of throwing in the triple digits, the 26-year-old Miami-born Floridian had a radar-gun strike zone, meaning the higher the number the more likely it was a ball if the batter did not swing.

As expected, the Nationals did not make any picks in the MLB phase. A slight surprise: They also passed in the AAA and AA phases as well.

The 2012 Watchlist has been updated to reflect the selections.

Rule 5: Who Could Go?

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Dec 062012
 

The Rule 5 Draft is this morning, the anticlimactic denouement to the 2012 Winter Meetings.

As written last month, it’s nearly certain that the Nationals will not be taking anybody in the major-league phase, which is rather typical for first-division/contenders. Instead, there’s a chance that a couple of farmhands may be taken as they were a year ago.

However, there’s a difference between players selected and actually being gone for good. Both picks last year — Brad Meyers and Erik Komatsu — were eventually returned.

Here’s another pass at who might get taken, filtered through the lens of the most common categories of players selected in the MLB phase:

Relievers 4th OF Utility IF
Pat Lehman Destin Hood Jeff Kobernus
Paul Demny    
Pat McCoy    
Rob Wort    

Of this group, only Lehman has AAA experience, which makes him the most likely to get selected, followed by Kobernus. But both are longshots in the big picture. There’s probably a better chance of the Nationals having players taken in the AAA and AA phases (and vice-versa), but as written previously, it’s impossible to even guess who because the protected lists are not publicly released.

Karns, Davis Added To 40-Man Roster

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Nov 212012
 

Waiting deep into the night to make the announcement, the Washington Nationals added RHPs Nathan Karns and Erik Davis to the 40-man roster in preparation for next month’s Rule 5 draft.

Karns, of course, was the expected selection — the Nationals Minor-League Pitcher of the Year, leader in minor-league wins, strikeouts, WHIP, and opponent batting average, not to mention the mustache. Injuries delayed the 2009 12th-Rd. pick’s ascent, with shoulder surgery sidelining him for 2010 and limiting him to 13 appearances in 2011, in which he went 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 59K in 55⅓ innings. This past season he went 11-4 between Hagerstown and Potomac with a 2.17 ERA, a 1.01 WHIP and 148K in 116 innings. The Texan native turns 25 on Sunday.

Davis was the wildcard pick. Even with the benefit of hindsight (i.e. Rizzo’s habit of favoring guys that he acquired), this is still a mild shock. As many of the beat writers pointed out, Davis’s strong showing in the Dominican Winter League — 3-0, 0.56ERA, 16K in 16IP — was likely a predicating factor for the move. After finishing 2011 with a demotion from Harrisburg to Potomac (and even worse numbers in High-A than AA), Davis turned it around in 2012 with a 8-3, 2.71, 1.247 pitching line overall, with 40 appearances for Harrisburg and eight in Syracuse. The Stanford grad/native turned 26 last month.

Rule 5 Thoughts

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Nov 202012
 

Today is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in preparation for the Rule 5 draft on December 6th. Like the Kardashians, this gets WAY more attention than it deserves, but people can’t help themselves from writing about it, largely because we’re in a dead zone between the end-of-season awards and the Baseball Winter Meetings.

Unlike years past, the Nationals are more likely to “lose” a player than get one (at least in the major-league phase). Quotes because both players lost last December — Erik Komatsu and Brad Meyers — were eventually returned, both undergoing surgery during the season.

The rules are pretty simple: Players that signed at 19 or older and have been in the organization for four years or players that signed at 18 or younger and have been in the organization for five years — if they’re not on the 40-man by tonight, they’re eligible. As noted in the comments, this basically boils down to 2009 college picks and 2008 HSers and IFAs.

ELIGIBLE FOR THE FIRST TIME

Pat Lehman* Destin Hood* Paul Applebee* Graham Hicks
Jeff Kobernus* Sean Nicol Matt Swynenberg* Dean Weaver
Danny Rosenbaum* Justin Bloxom J.P. Ramirez Bobby Hansen Jr.
Paul Demny* Nathan Karns* Adrian Nieto* Shane McCatty
Trevor Holder Rob Wort Taylor Jordan Andruth Ramirez

Asterisks are for the 2012 Watchlist players and italics are for players that were either hurt, had surgery, or are believed to have had surgery. I’m italicizing both Karns and Jordan to illustrate the more salient point that other organizations may deem their health as suspect. I’m focusing on the first-timers because picks on subsequently eligible players are uncommon (you can look at last year’s list if you need further convincing).

As you can see, there aren’t very many players that were both healthy and high-profile — just five of these 20. Of those five, just two played at AA (Demny and Rosenbaum) and one at AAA (Lehman). Teams picking anyone else are going to be gambling that the player’s injury is healed and didn’t impede their development.

As of this writing, there are only four spots available on the 40-man roster. Conventional wisdom suggests that the Nationals will both add players and outright players to preserve space for free agents and waiver claims. I’ll admit to being fuzzy on the precise rules, but there doesn’t appear to be any restrictions on waivers made prior to the November 30th non-tender deadline.

I believe we’ll see two players protected: Karns and Rosenbaum. While both are starting pitchers currently, both could be hidden in a losing ballclub’s bullpen. Here’s why I’m not convinced on the others at the AA level or above. This is not an indictment of the player, just an interpretation of how/why the Washington Nationals will decline to add him to the 40-man roster…

…Lehman, like Josh Wilkie before him, is probably going to be exposed to the draft because he doesn’t throw hard enough for the organization’s tastes.

…As mentioned yesterday, scouts have noticed a drop in Demny’s velocity, which, coupled with his struggles at Harrisburg, might be enough for most teams to pass.

…The signing of Will Rhymes is a hint (to me at least) that Washington may risk losing Kobernus, not to mention his injury history overall.

…Hood is just too unaccomplished at AA and lacks the Eury Perez-like defensive/pinch-running tools to be stashed on an MLB bench.

Rule 5 Draft Results

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Dec 082011
 

Just 12 players were taken in the major-league phase of the Rule 5 draft, but two of them were Nationals — RHP Brad Meyers and OF Erik Komatsu.

The Nationals passed with the 16th pick.

Meyers was the expected choice, but Komatsu was the wildcard and was actually taken ahead of Meyers by the Cardinals with the 22nd pick. The Yankees took Meyers with the 29th pick.

Gut reaction: We’re going to see at one of these players returned in early March (Komatsu), the other by late March (Meyers). For their sakes, I hope I’m wrong, but the odds are in my favor.

In the AAA phase the Nationals acquired C Beau Seabury from the Colorado Rockies, a 26-year-old that has never played above High-A. Much will be made of his UVA connection. Offensively, Seabury has been a late bloomer, having cracked the plateaus .250/.300/.400 just twice in his career: his rookie season as a 22-year-old in the Pioneer League and this past season as a 26-year-old in California League (the minors’ equivalent to Colorado).

In the AA phase, the Nationals selected RHP Matthew Buschmann from the San Diego Padres, a 27-year-old that has languished in AA and AAA for the past three seasons, bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation. Buschmann was originally drafted in 2006 out of Vanderbilt.

At first blush, these two picks resemble a replacement for Brian Peacock and a Erik Arnesen-like swingman. As stated in the reviews, the Rule 5 draft is not what it used to be, But thankfully for the Nats, its importance has changed from being a hope of getting someone for the bench in the majors to someone to plug a gap in the minors.

Rule 5 Preview, Part 2

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Dec 072011
 

Picking up where we left off yesterday (sorry, but this time of year, whenever I can break up a post idea to keep the site fresh, I’m gonna do it), Baseball America has listed its potential targets for the Rule 5 draft.
I’m passing along the 21 non-Nationals named, grouping them by type…

Blaine Hardy, LHRP (Royals) — Turns 25 in March, features an average slider that’s deceptive due to a short-arm delivery. Pitched mostly at AA in ’11 with 1.109 WHIP in 39⅔ IP before making like a narc at biker rally in 29IP at Omaha (1.966).

Brandon Sisk, LHRP (Royals) — Unlike Hardy, Sisk went from AA to AAA and did even better, dropping his WHIP form 1.047 to 1.000 on the nose, despite a rise in his walk rate (2.2 to 4.5). Features average FB and CU and a “fringy” CV. Turns 27 in July 2012.

Joseph Ortiz, LHRP (Rangers) — Just turned 21 (August), Ortiz’s best offering is a slider which is tough on lefties (.200/.243/.308 in the Carolina League) considering the low plane that the 5’7″ southpaw works with.

Trevor Reckling, LHSP (Angels) — A drop in velocity (from 91-94 to 86-89) is BA’s explanation for his exposure but has a deceptive delivery and a killer curve that could make him a LOOGY project. Turns 23 in May 2012.

T.J. McFarland, LHSP (Indians) — A solid starter in his days at Kinston (11-5, 3.13 in ’10) that features a sinker, slider, and change but rarely cracks 90. Keeps the ball the ball on the ground (2.5:1 GO/AO in ’11 for AA Akron). Turns 23 in June 2012.

Diego Moreno, RHRP (Pirates) — High-90s FB to complement a sinker/slider but has durability concerns (never thrown more than 50IP as a pro), not to mention the 25-y.o. Venezuelan has just 14IP at AA.

Bryce Stowell, RHRP (Indians) — An elbow injury, which shortened his ’11 to 38⅔IP and dropped his velocity from high 90s to mid-90s and fringy secondary pitches are the “yeah, buts” for this just-turned-25-y.o. that BA thinks could be a setup man.

Johan Yan, RHRP (Rangers) — A converted infielder, this recently turned 23-y.o. Dominican throws from a sidearm angle to deal low-90s two-seamers and sliders. Limited AA exposure (26⅔ innings) but BA considers his ceiling as a setup man.

Brett Lorin, RHSP (Pirates) — Had hip surgery in 2010 but put in 117⅓ IP for Hi-A Bradenton. A sinker/slider/command pitcher without AA experience but has the size (6’7″, 245) that most folks covet.

Ryan Searle, RHSP (Cubs) — Dominant at Hi-A (1.59 ERA, 1.165 WHIP) but less so at AA (3.51 ERA, 1.465), this 22-y.o. Aussie has had both command and attitude problems. Throws classic repetoire (FB/CH/CV/SL) but has had trouble vs. LHBs (.336 OBA).

Justin Fitzgerald, RHSP (Giants) — Turns 26 in March, and has moved up the ladder steadily. A college closer but has started the past two seasons at Hi-A and AA, using a cutter, slider, change. Mostly worked in 87-91 range, but could occasionally hit 94/95.

Caleb Brewer, RHSP (Braves) — A roll-the-dice candidate per BA, given his career 5.7BB/9 and his mid-90s FB and sharp low-80s SL. Turns 23 in February but has just 21IP above Low-A — four starts for the Lynchburg Hillcats (5.14ERA, 1.857WHIP).

Dae-Eun Rhee, RHSP (Cubs) — Missed most of ’09 with TJ surgery but is coming off two consecutive 100+ IP seasons in the FSL with strong ratios (8.25K to 3.0BB) and utilizes the aforementioned classic arsenal. Turns 23 in March 2012.

Abraham Almonte, OF (Yankees) — A switch-hitting Dominican speedster (30SB in ’11) who lost most of ’10 to injury. Has yet to play in AA but is considered defensively advanced. Doesn’t turn 23 until June 2012.

Eduardo Sosa, OF (Yankees) — A 20-y.o. Venezuelan that, like Almonte, has the legs and glove to be stashed on a deep A.L. bench and then returned to the minors for further development.

Jiwan James, OF (Phillies) — Drafted as a pitcher, but converted to hitting when shoulder problems arose. At one point Philadelphia’s #9 prospect, BA says he’s a tools guy learning to develop skills.

Jordan Danks, OF (White Sox) — Yes, he’s John Danks brother. Has spent the past two seasons at AAA Charlotte putting up a modest .251/.329/.400 line and could be drafted to be a platoon OF, though he’s a defense-first player despite 6’4″, 210 size.

Ryan Flaherty, UT (Cubs) — Could be this year’s Michael Martinez due to his comp as a LH version of Mark DeRosa with his five-position defensive skills and .809 OPS in 450 games. Turns 26 next July.

Justin Henry, UT (Tigers) — Zero power but another can-play-anywhere type (has played every position but catcher) and gets on base (career .373 OBP). Turns 27 next April.

Drew Cumberland, MI (Padres) — Spent 2011 on the DL with bilateral vestibulopathy (a.k.a. vertigo) Allegedly he’s been given medical clearance to resume playing. Prior to his spin, er, stint on the DL, he put up a .350/.385/.430 line over 75 games in 2010. Turns 23 in January.

Beamer Weems, SS (Padres) — A defense-first SS with a strong arm and good hands, but bats from the right side without plus speed = harder to carry him as a reserve. Turns 25 in July.

Rule 5 Preview, Part 1

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Dec 062011
 

As we’ve discussed previously, the Rule 5 draft is no longer what it once was, thanks to the rule changes that have effectively turned it into an exercise of roster-filling. Sadly, that’s a reference the minor-league phase, for which the information is sorely lacking. As I summed up last year (dates adjusted, of course):

There are also two other phases, the AAA and the AA, which are something of a misnomer because there’s no requirement that the player has played or will play at that level in 2011 or 2012. Basically, it amounts to teams being able to protect up to 38 players in the AAA phase and up to 37 players in the AA phase. Who is or will be protected is anyone’s guess. This information simply is not released to anyone outside of baseball.

If you’ll recall, the Nationals chose Elvin Ramirez and Brian Broderick in the major-league phase and Michael Allen in the AAA phase. None of them “stuck” with the club, with Ramirez spending the season on the DL, Broderick famously flaming out in early April (and struggled for AAA Memphis), and Allen was released in late March.

Two Nationals were named in the BA stories that previewed the potential targets: Brad Meyers and Josh Smoker. As we mentioned yesterday, Smoker is considered the most viable by the prospect pundits. Here’s the upshot from BA:

His fastball touched 98 at times and sat in the 91-94 mph range, and his curveball and changeup have their moments, with the curve flashing plus. He’ll never throw a ton of quality strikes; as one scout put it this summer, “(The Nationals) have told him, ‘To hell with teaching you to throw, just let it all hang out.’ That’s what he’s doing.”

Brad Meyers was listed among “Other Possibilities” without comment. A recently discovered list of Rule 5 eligibles, describes Meyers thusly: “6’6″ 195 LBS with Deceptive Delivery, Above Average Command of 87-92 MPH Fastball, 3 Average Offspeed Pitches; Career 2.86 ERA, 3.60 K/BB” It bears repeating that just five of the 19 players drafted last year stuck: four relievers, and former National Michael Martinez. As much as we may value Meyers, the odds are overwhelming that he’ll either not be drafted or be returned before the season starts.

So who are the other potential targets for the Nationals and other teams on Thursday? That’s the subject for Part 2 ;-)

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