Sep 052014
 

Our final look at the leaders, trailers, and outliers in the Washington Nationals minor leagues. Repeats from 2013 are in italics.

SYRACUSE CHIEFS
81-62, 1st place International League North, 2½ games ahead

Good Bat: Steve Souza .350/.432/.590, 18HR, 75RBI, 26SB in 96G
Arm: Taylor Hill 11-7, 1SV, 2.81 ERA, 1.56 BB/9, 144 IP
Bad Bat: Josh Johnson .622 OPS in 90G
Arm: Josh Roenicke 5.45 ERA, 1.71 WHIP in 23 appearances, 15 starts (79⅓ IP)
Interesting Bat: Emmanuel Burriss .300/.377/.412, 22SB, 22E in 116G
Arm: Rafael Martin 1-1, 10 SV, 0.80 ERA, 0.80 WHIP in 33⅔ IP


HARRISBURG SENATORS
53-89, 6th place Eastern League Western Division, 26 games behind

Good Bat: Michael Taylor .313/.396/.539, 22HR, 34SB in 98G
Arm: A.J. Cole 6-3, 2.92/2.58/1.32, 61K in 14GS (71IP)
Bad Bat: Adrian Sanchez .568 OPS, 11E in 89G
Arm: Zach Kroenke 3-9, 6.72 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 13HR in 83IP
Interesting Bat: Kevin Keyes .740 OPS, 20HR in 114G
Arm: Matt Grace 3-1, 3SV, 1.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP in 22 appearances (35⅓ IP)


POTOMAC NATIONALS
40-27 in 2nd half, 1st place Carolina League Northern Division, 7 games ahead
38-31 in 1st half, 1st place, 4½ games ahead
78-58 overall

Good Bat: Tony Renda .307/.381/.377, 10SB in 107G
Arm: Matt Spann 9-5, 3.81/4.09/1.38, 4HR in 106⅓ IP
Bad Bat: Justin Miller .625 OPS, 53K in 62G
Arm: Brett Mooneyham 2-4, 7.36 ERA, 2.12 WHIP in 33IP (10 appearances, 7 starts)
Interesting Bat: Pedro Severino .308/.379/.477 in 2nd half, .199/.246/.335 in 1st half
Arm: Ian Dickson 3-4, 2.64 ERA in 2nd half, 1-4, 6.25 in 1st half


HAGERSTOWN SUNS
43-27 in 2nd half, T1st place South Atlantic League Northern Division, won on tiebreaker
44-26 in 1st half, T1st place, lost on tiebreaker
87-53 overall

Good Bat: Wilmer Difo .315/.360/.470, 14HR , 49SBs in 136G
Arm: Lucas Giolito 10-2, 2.20/3.16/1.00 in 98IP (20 starts)
Bad Bat: David Masters .522 OPS, 7E in 51G
Arm: Jake Johansen 5-6, 5.19/4.05/1.74 in 100⅔ IP (29 appearances, 18 starts)
Interesting Bat: Rafael Bautista .290/.341/.382, 69SB in 134G
Arm: Reynaldo Lopez 4-1, 1.33/2.91/0.80 in 47&8531; IP (nine starts)


AUBURN DOUBLEDAYS
34-41, 3rd Place Pinckney Division of New York-Penn League, 13½ games behind

Good Bat: Raudy Read .281/.332/.462, 6HR in 57G
Arm: Travis Ott 1-2, 3.05/3.98/1.24 in 44&⅓ IP (10 starts)
Bad Bat: Osvaldo Abreu .584 OPS, 20E in 58G
Arm: David Ramos 1-2, 1SV, 7.97 ERA, 1.82 WHIP in 15 appearances
Interesting Bat: Jose “Orange” Marmolejos-Diaz .265/.341/.385 in 65G
Arm: 19-y.o. Mario Sanchez 6-1, 3.50 FIP, 1.17WHIP in 35IP (18 appearances)


GCL NATIONALS
25-35, T3rd place Gulf Coast League East Dvision, 12 games behind

Good Bat: 18-y.o. Jakson Reetz .274/.429/.368 in 43G
Arm: 19-y.o. Jean Ramirez 3-1, 1SV, 3.41/3.60/1.45 in 31⅔ IP (14 appearances)
Bad Bat: Darryl Florentino .195/.222/.273 in 43G
Arm: Deibi Yrizarri 2-4, 9.08 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 10HBP in 36⅔ IP
Interesting Bat: 18-y.o. Aldrem Corredor .411 OBP, 25BB, 18K in 32G
Arm: 20-y.o. John Feliz 3-1, 1.08 ERA, 0.72 WHIP in 10 appearances (promoted to Auburn)


DSL NATIONALS
42-28, 3rd place, Boca Chica South Division of Dominican Summer League, 8½ games behind

Good Bat: 17-y.o. Davinson Pimentel .350/.443/.550 in 55G
Arm: 19-y.o. Joan Baez 4-1, 1.15/2.96/1.00 in 71⅓ IP (15 appearances, 14 starts – promoted to GCL)
Bad Bat: 18-y.o. Neivy Pilier .171/.265/.205 in 37G
Arm: 18-y.o. Jose Nunez 0-0, 8.25ERA, 2.50 WHIP in 24IP (12 appearances, 4 starts)
Interesting Bat: 17-y.o. Telmito Agustin .300/.413/.495, 25SB in 60G
Arm: 17-y.o. Yonathan Ramirez 3-0, 2SV, 2.63/2.59/0.91 in 27⅓ IP (11 appearances)
Jul 282014
 

Lucas Giolito and Oscar Tejeda were named the Pitcher of the Week and Player of the Week for the Sally and Carolina Leagues, respectively for the week of July 21-27.

Giolito was near-perfect on Friday night, giving up a leadoff single then retiring the next 18 batters in a row — including seven by way of the K — for six shutout innings and his second Pitcher of the Week award during the month of July. Since returning to action in early June after a three-week layoff in May, the 20-year-old has won four of nine starts and posted a 2.22 ERA over 44⅔ innings with 52 strikeouts, 11 walks, and four HR’s allowed.

Tejeda blasted home runs nos. 15 & 16 last night, including a towering shot off the Pftizner stadium scoreboard that gave the P-Nats a 6-5 walkoff win in 11 innings. The 24-y.o. batted .438 (14-for-32) with four doubles and eight RBI during the week and has been reportedly reassigned to Harrisburg, which wourld return him to the E.L. where he spent the 2011 and 2012 season with Portland and 2013 with Altoona.

Jul 042014
 


Our weekly look at the leaders, trailers, and outliers in the Washington Nationals minor leagues.

SYRACUSE CHIEFS 51-35, 1st place I.L. North, 2½ games ahead

Good Steve Souza .333 in April, .359 in May, .353 in June; .354 overall
Bad Josh Roenicke 6.18 ERA, 1.63 WHIP over last six starts
Interesting Emmanuel Burris .459/.565/.649, 4SB over last 10G



HARRISBURG SENATORS 33-51, 5th place E.L. West, 16½ games behind

Good John Simms 2-0, 1.35 ERA, 0.90 WHIP since promotion from Potomac (2GS)
Bad Adrian Sanchez 0-for-16 in last 10G played
Interesting Team #2 in batting HR’s, BB’s, K’s



POTOMAC NATIONALS 6-6, T1st place C.L. North, 1 game ahead (44-37 overall)

Good Mike McQuillan .344/.488/.625, 2HR, 13RBI in June (16G)
Bad Kylin Turnbull 0-2, 8.44 ERA, 2.25 WHIP in seven appearances
Interesting Tied for fewest SBs allowed, 2nd in most CS, fewest PBs in C.L.


HAGERSTOWN SUNS 9-6, 4th place Sally North, 4 games behind (53-32 overall)

Good Lucas Giolito 1.84 ERA, 0.85 WHIP since return to rotation on June 3 (6GS)
Bad 213 team batting BB — 13th in 14-team Sally Lg.
Interesting Rafael Bautista 43SB in 48 attempts, 15BB, .322 OBP



AUBURN DOUBLEDAYS 8-11, 4th place Pinckney Division, New York-Penn League, 4½ games behind

Good Raudy Read .300/.435/.420, 7RBI in 15G
Bad Matt DeRosier 8.49 ERA, 1.46 WHIP in 11⅔ IP (4 appearances)
Interesting 18 pitching HBP in 19 games (2nd most in NYPL)



DSL NATIONALS 16-13, 3rd place Boca Chica South, 4 games behind

Good 19-y.o. Juan “Shorts” Bermudez 1-2, 1.46 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 24K in 24⅔ IP
Bad 17-y.o. Neivy Pilier .122/.146/.163, 4E in 11G
Interesting 20-y.o. Luis Vilorio 1BB, 6K in 50PA
Jun 242014
 

Outfielder Michael Taylor and pitcher Lucas Giolito were among those named to the US team for the 2014 Futures Game, which will be held on the Sunday prior to the MLB All-Star game on July 15 in Minneapolis.

Taylor has been having a monster season for the Harrisburg Senators, prompting chatter about his becoming the heir apparent to CF Denard Spa. This is despite the presence of Syracuse Chief Brian Goodwin, who was more highly rated during this past offseason and famously leapfrogged Taylor two years ago on the organizational ladder. Or more accurately, perhaps it’s because while Taylor has flourished at AA (.333/.413/.584, 17HR, 52RBI, 19SB) Goodwin has floundered at AAA (.219/.351/.339, 4HR, 30RBI, 6SB).

As the game’s name suggests, Giolito’s selection is more about his potential than his production, though his line of 2.59/4.14/1.09 with a 2-2 record and 52 strikeouts in 48⅔ innings for the Hagerstown Suns isn’t so bad, especially for teenager in his first full professional season who’s two years removed from Tommy John surgery. Giolito has also been very carefully managed in terms of workload with just one start that lasted six innings — perhaps not coincidentally, the last one before he was skipped for several turns from mid-May 11 to early June — and five starts that have lasted less than five innings.

Apr 172014
 
Team Yesterday Today Probable Pitchers
Syracuse Won, 6-5 vs. Lehigh Valley,
5:00 p.m.
Tatusko (0-1, 2.08) and Laffey (1st start of ’14) vs.
Smith (0-0, 5.79) and Lincoln (1-0, 0.00)
Harrisburg Lost, 5-2 OFF DAY N/A
Potomac Won, 7-3;
Won, 3-1
@ Myrtle Beach,
6:05 p.m.
Encarnacion (1-0, 2.00) vs.
Wolff (1-1, 0.79)
Hagerstown Lost, 1-0 (15 inn.) vs. Lakewood,
6:35 p.m.
Voth (0-1, 3.72) vs.
Arteaga (1-1, 4.91)


Syracuse 6 Lehigh Valley 5
• Rosenbaum 5⅔ IP, 8H, 4R, 4ER, BB, K
• Garcia (W, 1-0) 2IP, 2H, R, ER, 0BB, 3K, HR
• Mattheus (SV, 2) 1IP, 0H, 0R, BB, K
• Peterson 2-3, 2R, BB
• Perez 2-5, R, 3B

Syracuse weathered a four-run, six-hit 1st and came back for 6-5 win over Lehigh Valley. Danny Rosenbaum shook off the bad inning to retire 14 of the next 15 batters and finish the night with four runs on eight hits and a walk over five and 2/3rds innings pitched. Three walks and a wild pitch tied it for the Chiefs in the 7th while the gamewinner came on Emmannuel Burriss sac fly following a one-out triple by Eury Perez. Ryan Mattheus worked around a walk in the 9th to earn the save, his second for the season.

Altoona 5 Harrisburg 2
• Rivero (L, 0-3) 5IP, 4H, 2R, 2ER, BB, 5K
• Holland 1IP, 0H, 0R, 0BB, 2K
• Bloxom 2-3, 2B, BB
• Taylor 2-4, 2B, BB, RBI, CS

A starting temperature of 32 degrees didn’t cool the Curve as they jumped out to a 2-0 lead after one and chugged to a 5-2 win in the series finale. Felipe Rivero lost for the third time in as many starts despite hanging a decent line of two runs on four hits and one walk while striking out five. The Sens couldn’t take advantage of six bases-on-ballsas they struggled to a 1-for-11 mark with RISP. Michael Taylor and Justin Bloxom both reached base three times with a walk, single, and a double.
Roster moves: OF Drew Vettleson placed on the 7-Day DL; OF Quincy Latimore assigned from Washington.

Potomac 7 Myrtle Beach 3 — GAME ONE
• Pena 2IP, 5H, 3R, 3ER, BB, 0K, HR
• Dupra (W, 2-0) 4IP, 2H, 0R, BB, 7K, BK
• Benincasa (SV, 4) 1⅔ IP, 2H, 0R, BB, K
• Norfork 2-4, BB, RBI, 2SB
• S. Perez 2-4, R, 2B, 2RBI

The P-Nats picked up where they left off on Tuesday night and took advantage of sloppy defense to score three unearned runs in the top of the 9th to put it away. Brian Dupra got the win in relief with four scoreless innings of relief, with just two hits and a walk surrendered while striking out seven. Robert Benincasa came on in the 8th and got the last five outs for his fourth save of the season.

Potomac 3 Myrtle Beach 1 — GAME TWO
• Mooneyham (W, 1-1) 5IP, 3H, R, ER, 3BB, 1K, WP, PO
• Mendez (SV, 2) 2IP, 1H, 0R, 0BB, 2K
• Leonida 3-3, 2R, 2-2B, HR, RBI
• Oduber 2-4, RBI

Brett Mooneyham walked a season-low three batters over five innings while batterymate Cole Leonida racked up eight total bases as Potomac took the nightcap, 3-1. Mooneyham allowed the lone Myrtle Beach run on three hits while earning his first win at High-A. Leonida doubled twice and homered once to lead the P-Nats offense, which racked up nine hits in just seven innings. Gilberto Mendez closed out the game with two scoreless for his second save of the year.

Delmarva 1 Hagerstown 0 (15 inn.) — GAME ONE
• Giolito 5IP, 2H, 0R, 2BB, 6K
• Cooper 5IP, 2H, 0R, BB, 6K, HBP
• Thomas (L, 0-2) 2⅔ IP, 3H, R, ER, 3BB, K wit
• Yezzo 2-5, BB, CS

The two teams knew they were going to be playing 14 innings last night. Turns out it was 15 innings, but just one game as the Shorebirds won the battle of who could score first with a 1-0 walkoff win. Lucas Giolito and Hunter Harvey both put on a show, with Giolito allowing two hits and two walks over five innings. Jake Walsh, Andrew Cooper, and Justin Thomas combined for nine scoreless innings before Delmarva scored on a two-out rally of two singles sandwiched around of walk, with Thomas putting on the first two baserunners and L.J. Hollins giving up the game-winning hit to the sole batter he faced. Due to the length of the game, Game Two of the doubleheader was postponed. It will most likely be made up during the next series between the two teams, in Delmarva, on May 26-28.

Feb 202014
 

lucas-giolito-2
The lovefest for the Nationals’ top pick in 2012 continues as Lucas Giolito was named as the No. 21 prospect on Baseball America’s 2014 Top 100 Prospects List.

As you might have already guessed, Giolito was the sole National to make the list. Last year, it was three as Anthony Rendon (30), Giolito (67), and Brian Goodwin (70). In 2012, Bryce Harper topped the list for the second time with Rendon coming in at No. 19.

The 19-year-old Californian returned to action last summer after undergoing Tommy John surgery in August 2012, struggling with his command early on, getting lifted twice in the first inning in his first four starts. After bottoming out with a four-run outing to the GCL Mets in his fifth appearance, resulting in a loss, Giolito got his bearings and strung together three solid starts to earn a bump up to the New York-Penn League in mid-August.

Giolito went 1-0 with 14K in 14IP in three starts for the Auburn Doubledays, giving up his only HR of the season in his last start against the Batavia Muckdogs. BA broke from its previous pattern of double-dipping and only named him to one (1) of its postseason league Top 20 lists, the Gulf Coast League’s No. 2 prospect.

MASN’s Byron Kerr has reported that Giolito will begin 2014 in Low-A Hagerstown, insisting in the comments that he’ll be there for Opening Day. History strongly suggests otherwise as previous HS pitchers (A.J. Cole, Robbie Ray) were held back until May, though there is the counter example of Taylor Jordan, who underwent TJ in July 2011, came back to action with Auburn and Hagerstown in the June 2012, and was sent to Potomac in April 2013.(Can we both be wrong and have him debut in Woodbridge in mid-May? ;-)

Giolito features a 80-grade fastball that can hit triple digits from a high arm angle created in part by his 6’6″ frame, though scouts noted he tended to work best when it was around 95 to 97 mph. He also boasts a 12-6 curve (clocked in the 84-86 range) that could reach the 80 mark, but alas his changeup only figures to reach 70 mark, making it merely plus, not plus-plus (for the velo whores, it comes in around 82-83).

With less than 39 innings total as a pro, the folks at BA believe this season will be a matter of demonstrating he can handle the workload of full-season ball and peg his MLB debut at possibly late 2015 but more likely in 2016.

Jan 242014
 

Mayo 2Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com has released the 2014 edition of his Top 100 prospects with two Nationals making the cut.

Coming in at #44, it’s a kid from Southern California, and the Nats’ #1 pick in the 2012 Draft, Lucas Giolito(sorry for the Casey Kasem lead-in; kids have been watching Scooby Doo a lot lately)
He was ranked #74 last year despite having thrown just two innings and was in recovery from Tommy John surgery. As reported by MASN’s Byron Kerr earlier this month, Giolito is expected to begin 2014 in Hagerstown, though it’s less clear that he’ll pitch immediately. Previous HS picks Robbie Ray and the next guy were held back until May at the same age/stage without having had surgery. Taylor Jordan did start his second season after TJ surgery in April 2013 though he was much older (24 vs. 19) and much more experienced (248⅔ IP vs. 38⅔ IP).

A.J. Cole moved up 22 spots from #91 to #69 after the Nationals re-acquired him a year ago in the Michael Morse trade. Cole had gotten lit like a sailor on leave (7.82/4.99/1.84) in the High-A California League the previous summer, forcing a demotion to Low-A Burlington (IA) where he rebounded to a 2.07/2.74/1.01 line and a 6-3 record. Cole fulfilled Washington GM Mike Rizzo’s assertion that the Nats “pitching people will straighten out his delivery” as the 22-y.o. made 18 starts for Potomac and seven for Harrisburg for a combined record of 10-5 with a line of 3.60/2.91/1.12 and peripherals of 2.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9. Cole will most likely return to Harrisburg for more seasoning, as scouts believe his secondary offerings (CH, CV) still need further development.

Last year, four Nationals were ranked. Anthony Rendon (#28) graduated to the parent club while Brian Goodwin (#52) fell from the list, which saw 35 new names thanks to injuries, underperformance, and of course, the next wave of draftees.

Dec 112013
 

Like the bats, folks were overwhelmingly in agreement about the top three arms in the Washington Nationals minors. Unlike a year ago, though, the range was smaller — just 22 different pitchers versus 30 — and there were four guys that were named on every ballot.

OK, enough vamping. Let’s rock this, pitch:

                              1. Lucas Giolito
                              2. A.J. Cole
                              3. Sammy Solis
                              4. Nathan Karns
                              5. Jake Johansen
                              6. Aaron Barrett
                              7. Matt Purke
                              8. Austin Voth
                              9. Christian Garcia
                              10. Richie Mirowski

Others receiving votes: Blake Schwartz, Jefry Rodriguez, Taylor Hill, Hector Silvestre, Travis Ott, Erik Davis, Pedro Encarnacion, Brett Mooneyham, Wander Suero, Nick Lee, Neil Holland, Blake Treinen

Now the observations…

• Giolito was the top dog on 12 of the 13 ballots, with Cole getting the other first-place vote. Giolito was the #1 last year, too, despite coming off UCL-replacement surgery in August 2012.

• Cole was the Mary Ann to Ging, er… Giolito on 11 of the possible 12 second-place votes. It would have been interesting to see if that would have been true had Robbie Ray not been traded away.

• Voth and Garcia tied in raw points, but I broke the tie by the pitcher who was named on more ballots (nine vs. seven).

• Two of the top three old maids (i.e. the near misses) were righthanded control artists who don’t throw in the mid-90s. Not sure if the bias is against the lower velocity, the low K rate, or the soap-opera first name (just kidding).

The list continues to skews older (five are 25+) and upper minors (also five), which has been a consistent bias since this experiment in crowdsourcing began in 2011. But like all things hot stove, the point is to pass the time — none of this is really significant, statistically or otherwise — while winter sets its claws in and local schools overreact to snowfall that wouldn’t get a chihuahua’s belly wet.

Next up: The Rule 5 draft, which for the Nationals, has become an exercise of wondering who’s going versus who’s arriving.

Nov 062013
 

Baseball America for NPPNo sense vamping when this list has probably been tweeted dozens of times by now. (Last year’s revised ranking in parentheses.)

1. Lucas Giolio, RHP (2)
2. A.J. Cole, RHP (4)
3. Brian Goodwin, CF (3)
4. Matt Skole, 1B/3B (5)
5. Robbie Ray, LHP (–)
6. Sammy Solis, LHP (9)
7. Michael Taylor, CF (–)
8. Jake Johansen, RHP (’13 Draft Pick)
9. Nathan Karns, RHP (6)
10. Steve Souza, OF (–)

Frankly, I was initially confused as to how an injured position player and a coming-off-surgery pitcher could move up in the rankings. This, of course, is no disrespect to them, but simple logic dictates that getting hurt and/or losing a year of development is the kind of thing that drops your stock, not improves it. This was Fitt’s answer to my question about that rationale for ranking them higher in 2014 than 2013:

I think Skole is in the same No. 4* slot he was last year (and remember that Anthony Rendon graduated to the big leagues). I did not dock Skole for being hurt — it was a fluke injury, and he returned strong this fall. I still think he’s a quality power-hitting prospect, and I ranked him accordingly. As for Solis, I got very encouraging reports on him coming off that surgery, and I expect him to move very quickly next year (assuming he can stay healthy — which is a legitimate question, given his track record). At this point, I think he has a better chance to stick as a big league starter than Karns, who strikes me as more of a power reliever ultimately. So I moved Solis ahead of Karns. I can’t say I’m overly excited about any of those guys — Solis is 25 now and still has yet to reach Double-A, after all. I don’t think this is a great top 10 after the top of the list, although I do like some of the depth in the 11-30 range.
* Skole was initially ranked #4 in December 2012, then moved to #5 when BA revised the list in March 2013

I give Fitt credit answering honestly, particularly in remarking about how the talent thins out rapidly after the first few guys, which has been the case for about two years now. For those wondering, Fitt said that he wrestled with a cluster of Tony Renda, Matt Purke, Billy Burns, and Zach Walters before deciding upon Souza for the #10 spot. There are certainly arguments that can be made for any of those five against the other four and it may be bit revealing of your personal biases, too. Fitt, it appears, likes Souza’s five-tool promise over Burns’s speed, Purke’s LHSP capabilities, Renda’s bat/eye, Walter’s power, etc.

One new wrinkle to this year’s rankings is a list of the Top 15 players under the age of 25, which you can find in the free article along with a list of the best tools, prospects of the year and top draft picks from the past 10 years. And of course, the top bonuses paid, for which Robin Leach Fitt remains enamored of the decision of the Nationals to spend heavily just as they were hitting rock bottom.

The projections for where the 2014 Top 10 will begin (or finish) next season were as follows:
AAA – Cole, Goodwin, Karns, Souza
AA – Skole, Ray, Solis, Taylor
Low-A – Giolito
Not specified – Johansen

I personally believe Cole will probably return to Harrisburg and be moved up in May or June; likewise for Johansen with Hagerstown as his starting point — but lately the Nats have been more aggressive, so it could be Syracuse and Potomac, respectively. As mentioned in the comments, where a prospect starts is not nearly as important as where he finishes.

Sep 242013
 

lucas-giolito
For the first time since 2009 (Destin Hood), a Nationals player has been named the Baseball America Top 20 prospect list for the Gulf Coast League… 2012 1st Rd. pick, Lucas Giolito.

The 19-year-old entered 2013 with the twin burdens of being the team’s top draft pick and proving himself to be healthy after UCL-replacement surgery. Early on, he exhibited the most common side effect of pitchers coming back from TJ: shaky command, which was so bad he was lifted in the first inning. Twice.

However, after allowing nearly two baserunners per inning in his first five appearances, Giolito hit his stride over the next three, as he earned his first win and began hitting the five-inning mark instead of his pitch limit. He was promoted to the New York-Penn League in mid-August and continued to give out donuts for a total of 20 consecutive scoreless innings before giving up a home run in his final start vs. Mahoning Valley.

Scouts clocked the SoCal native in the mid-90s, with some claims of triple-digit velo, with mid-80s speed on his curve that seems to vary between 12-6 and 11-5 action but late bite that earns the “plus-plus” in scout lingo. BattingLeadoff.com had this to say about his mechanics:

Has present stuff, but needs to clean up arm action. His delivery has some effort to it with a long arm circle and pronounced stab. He gets caught with his arm behind his body and arm will drag.

There’s also some disagreement about whether his changeup is back to where it was pre-surgery, but odds are pretty good that it varied from start to start (see above, command).

Of course, the million-dollar question for 2014 is where will Giolito start? The Nats have been careful with healthy HS arms and holding them back from full-season ball until early May, which they did with Robbie Ray in 2011 and 2012. Pitchers coming off surgery or shoulder problems, it’s been more towards Memorial Day (see: Purke, Matthew in 2012 and 2013).

A year ago, I probably would have written — they’ll be conservative and hold him in Viera until the NYPL starts up; he’s only had 14 innings at the level. Now, after a year of semi-aggressive promotions, I’m inclined to think he may actually be challenged to go to Low-A, perhaps even starting up as soon as the third week of April (i.e. the Suns first road trip south of Maryland).

Next possible BA Top 20 mention: Friday, when they rank the NYPL, though I’m not holding my breath…