Good, Bad, Interesting – Vol. 3

Our weekly look at the leaders, trailers, and outliers in the Washington Nationals minor leagues.

SYRACUSE CHIEFS 10-17, 6th place I.L. North, 6 games behind

Good Austin Bibens-Dirkx 1.38 FIP
Bad Jason Michaels .549 OPS
Interesting Carlos Rivero .343/.378/.514 in last 10G

HARRISBURG SENATORS 15-12, 2nd place E.L. West, 3½ games behind

Good Danny Rosenbaum 3-0, 0.76ERA, 0.70WHIP
Bad Eury Perez .130/.130/.152 last 10G
Interesting Sandy Leon .796 OPS

POTOMAC NATIONALS 10-14, 3rd place C.L. North Division, 3½ games behind

Good David Freitas .377/.457/.609
Bad Wilson Eusebio 9.31ERA, 4HBP, 8BB in 9⅔ IP
Interesting Matt Swynenberg 1ER in last 14⅓ IP

HAGERSTOWN SUNS 14-11, 3rd place Sally League North Divison, 3½ games behind

Good Cutter Dykstra .400/.464/.520, 11G hit streak
Bad Chris McKenzie 12.96ERA, 3.12WHIP in 5 appearances
Interesting Billy Burns 17G on-base streak (.469 OBP)

Good, Bad, Interesting – Vol. 1

It’s back! Our weekly look at the leaders, trailers, and outliers in the Washington Nationals minor leagues. For the newcomers, this is a ripoff of tribute to comedian Demetri Martin’s segment from his old show on Comedy Central.

And of course, the obligatory caveats: sample sizes are here small, it’s early in the season, minors stats aren’t as meaningful as we think, past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance, etc.

SYRACUSE CHIEFS 3-11, 6th place I.L. North, 7½ games behind

Good Tyler Moore .296/.361/.611, 5HR, 14 RBI in 14G
Bad Corey VanAllen 7BB in 7⅔ IP over 5 appearances
Interesting Mitch Atkins 0.75ERA in 1st two starts despite 7BB

HARRISBURG SENATORS 10-5, 1st place E.L. West, ½ game ahead

Good Danny Rosenbaum 2-0, 1.25 ERA, 0.65WHIP in 3 starts
Bad Chris McConnell 0-for-15, 2E since reassignment from AAA
Interesting Jeff Kobernus .403 OBP (.313 in ’11)

POTOMAC NATIONALS 6-6, 2nd place C.L. North Division, 2½ games behind

Good David Freitas .333/.419/.611, 8RBI (tied for team lead)
Bad Justin Bloxom .159/.255/.205, 5E in 12G
Interesting Kyle Winters 17K in 17IP

HAGERSTOWN SUNS 7-8, 4th place Sally League North Divison, 3 games behind

Good Jason Martinson .319/.437/.534, 8SB in 15G
Bad Wirkin “For The Weekend” Estevez 1.53 WHIP, 8.16 ERA in 3 starts
Interesting Taylor Hill 2-0, 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 1.93 FIP in 3 appearances

Last Night In Woodbridge

Sometimes you need to be reminded that this is still just A-ball.

Don’t get me wrong: There are flashes of brilliance, like Kevin Keyes turning on a 95+ mph first-pitch fastball and knocking over the light tower in left field, or Randolph Oduber ripping a double to left with two outs in the 9th.

Then are moments like the top of the 6th. It started innocently enough with a leadoff walk. Then a stolen base, the third of the night without a runner being caught. A tapper back to the mound, it’s now one out. Then a high popup to shallow right field.

Second baseman Adrian Sanchez, first baseman Justin Bloxom and the right fielder (Oduber) all converged, but the ball fell fair. It could have been scored an error, probably should have been. But that’s not the point.

Lynchburg took advantage of the extra out to score their fifth run with a mere sacrifice fly that should have been the third out of the inning.

With a final score of 6-4, that extra run probably didn’t cost the Potomac Nationals the win — 12 strikeouts is a much better culprit — but on another night, it might have.

Lynchburg’s J.R. Graham should also get some credit. Aside from the big boys, the 3-4-5 batters Bloxom, David Freitas and Keyes, who combined to go 4-for-8 with a walk, a home run, two doubles, and a strikeout against him, the 5’11″ fireballer handled the rest of the lineup with ease (0-for-12, 5Ks).

Adam Oblrychowski took the loss, pitching 5⅓ innings and giving up five runs on six hits and two walks while striking out four. Paul Applebee followed, giving a solo shot in the top of the 7th for a run over 1⅔ innings while Neil Holland tossed two scoreless to finish the game, retiring all six batters he faced.

The loss denied the P-Nats a chance to even their season record, instead, the Potomac Nine are 3-5 — three games behind the 6-2 Hillcats in the Carolina League’s Northern Division.

Matt Grace (1-0, 1.80) gets the start this afternoon with 21-year-old Aaron Northcraft (1-0, 1.59) taking the hill for Lynchburg.

Season Review: 2011 Hagerstown Suns

The 2011 season was the first winning season in the five years that Washington has been affiliated with Hagerstown. The 75-64 record was a 10½ game improvement over the 2010 season. But ultimately, the curse of high expectations that surrounds all things Bryce Harper made the 2011 season a disappointment in many fans’ eyes.

It may also surprise you to learn that for all for the rehab stints (Strasburg, Zimmerman, Wang, the immortal Doug Slaten) and the presence of Bryce Harper, the bump in attendance was just 126 per game over 2010 (2,057 vs. 1,931). Times are hard in Washington County, no doubt, but that’s still a bit of a shock to me. So I’ll leave it to you as to whether we should blame it on the economy, the rain, or the bossa nova.

Considering that, as a team, the Suns were mostly middle of the pack in the 14-team South Atlantic League — 6th in offense, 8th in pitching, 7th in defense — to have been in contention in both halves for most of the way should be considered a success. As we’ve done the past three weeks, let’s take a look at how Hagerstown compared to the rest of the league…
HITTING

PITCHING

The most encouraging thing to take away from the 2011 Suns is that this team was not afraid to take a walk or give up a walk — second in the league on both counts. It was also a team that could run (3rd), but unlike last season, they did it without a single 30-steal player and were successful 73.5% of the time. That’s encouraging if you’re a proponent of having a team that’s capable of playing it both big and small.

The pitching was a mixed bag. The starter that gave up the most hits had the most wins (Matt Grace). There were a couple of relievers with ERAs in the 1′s (Chris Manno, Neil Holland)… and a couple of relievers with ERAs in the 6′s (Shane McCatty, Greg Holt), while the team’s two swingmen (Paul Applebee and Matt Swynenberg) gave up the second- and third-most HRs on the team, yet were among the team’s more effective pitchers. Finally, two pitchers had their season cut short by unspecified injuries (Taylor Jordan and Bobby Hansen), and a third (Chris McKenzie) spent six weeks on the DL midseason and more than two months away from the Suns total.

Now it’s time to drill down to look at the top 12′s for the hitters. The full statistics for the team can be found here. (* = 2010 Draft Pick ** = DSL Graduate)
Bryce Harper’s numbers speak for themselves, with his rate statistics close to 100 points above the league average despite being barely old enough to vote. His removal from the lineup on the 4th of July, however, was largely covered by the emergence of Kevin Keyes, who hit .281/.355/.528 after the Sally League All-Star break. As you can see, the cluster of 2010 draft picks were the heart of this team. What remains to be seen is how they’ll develop. Thankfully, one of my spies in Hagerstown wrote about the Suns batters earlier this month, and I encourage folks to click on over to see what he had to say.

Next up, the pitchers, which I’m expanding to the top 15 to include three notables…
Eleven different pitchers made at least five starts for the Suns, thanks in part to the injuries to Jordan, Hansen and McKenzie and the delayed debuts of Cole and Ray, both of whom were held back until the first full weekend in May. Injury also delayed the start of Sammy Solis’s season until Memorial Day Weekend, which kept his inning count down and is arguably the primary reason why he’s repeating the AFL as a starter.

If Auburn is a barometer for the 2011 draft, then Hagerstown might be the same for 2010 (and to a certain extent, 2009). If the expression is that there three kinds of pitchers — young, old, and hurt — well, that pretty much sums up the draft class thus far.

The ground on the “young” Cole and Ray has been pretty much covered (though again, I point folks to my friend Shawn’s take). Old, of course is a relative term, but Grace and Solis will enter the 2012 campaign as 23-year-olds and the latter was touted as being ready for prime time in ’12. The same is true for ’09ers Swynenberg and Jordan. And of course, the “hurt” applies to Jordan, Solis and McKenzie (Hansen was an ’08 pick). Solis and McKenzie have since recovered from their injuries, but the outcome for Jordan, who appeared to be headed for Potomac a la Danny Rosenbuam in 2010, won’t be known until next spring.

OBLIGATORY TOP FIVE LISTS
We’re into crossover territory and I’m trying to avoid double-listing guys. Thus, a couple of honorable mentions to answer the question “Well, who would make it onto the list if X were rated at the next level instead of this level?”

Hitters
1. Bryce Harper
2. David Freitas
3. Kevin Keyes
4. Michael Taylor
5. Adrian Sanchez
HM: Jason Martinson

Pitchers
1. A.J. Cole
2. Robbie Ray
3. Taylor Jordan
4. Sammy Solis
5. Matt Swynenberg
HM: Matt Grace

Good, Bad, Interesting – Vol. 15

Our weekly look at the leaders, trailers, and outliers in the Washington Nationals minor leagues.

SYRACUSE 46-58, 4th Place I.L. North, 15 games behind

Good Josh Wilkie 2-0, 3SV, 0ER in last 14⅔ IP (11 appearances)
Bad Craig Stammen 0-2, 6.48 since I.L. All-Star Break
Interesting Tom Milone, Randy Knorr ejected in same game last night

HARRISBURG 60-46, 1st place E.L. West Division, 1½ games ahead

Good Derek Norris .283/.431/.478 since E.L. All Star Break
Bad Erik Davis 1-4, 7.52 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in July
Interesting Six different Ps have 4 or more saves, team is T2nd for league lead with 33

POTOMAC 20-13, 2nd place C.L. North Division, 2 games behind (49-53 overall)

Good Marcos Frias 1-0, 2.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP since C.L. All-Star Break
Bad Rob Wort 1.60 WHIP, 5.81 FIP
Interesting Steve Souza .427 OBP since C.L. All-Star Break

HAGERSTOWN SUNS 16-16, 4th place Sally North Division, 4½ games behind (56-46 overall)

Good David Freitas 59BB, 58K
Bad Shane McCatty 8.10ERA in July
Interesting Jason Martinson 12HR, 44RBI, 46BB, 106K, 24E

AUBURN DOUBLEDAYS 22-18, T1st place Pinckney Division, New York-Penn League, 1 game ahead

Good Brian Dupra 1.93 ERA, 0.99 WHIP in July
Bad Connor Rowe .578 OPS, 38K in 29G
Interesting Team SB success rate of 78.33% (47/60), best in NYPL

GCL NATIONALS 12-20, 4th place GCL East, 11 games behind

Good Wander Ramos 1.092 OPS in 24G
Bad Andy Santana 2.65 WHIP, 12.71 ERA
Interesting Silvio Medina 26K in 18⅓ IP (12.76/9IP)

DSL NATIONALS 25-25, 5th place, Boca Chica South Division, 5 games behind

Good Ivan Pineyro 2.22 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 54K in 48⅔ IP
Bad Raudy Read .147/.200/.255, 7E in 30G
Interesting Yermin Mercedes .318/.361/.409, 1E in 32G

Good, Bad, Interesting – Vol. 13

Our weekly look at the leaders, trailers, and outliers in the Washington Nationals minor leagues.

SYRACUSE 39-51, 4th place I.L. North, 14 games behind

Good Atahualpa Severino 1-0, 2.70 ERA in last 10G
Bad Ryan Tatusko 2.28WHIP
Interesting Michael Aubrey .429/.455/.905 in July

HARRISBURG 54-36, 1st place E.L. West Division, 5½ games ahead

Good Archie Gilbert .305/.387/.474
Bad Tanner Roark 6.45 ERA, 1.58 WHIP
Interesting Pat Lehman 0.37WHIP, 4SV in 12G

POTOMAC 11-8, 1st place C.L. North Division, 1½ games ahead (40-48 overall)

Good Hector Nelo 10SV, 22K in 23⅓ IP
Bad Sandy Leon .179/.294/.357 in July
Interesting Justin Bloxom .320/.388/.547, 18RBI in 19G since All-Star Break

HAGERSTOWN 12-7, 2nd place Sally League Northern Division, 1 game behind (52-37 overall)

Good David Freitas .300/.414/.473
Bad Dean Weaver 10.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP (9.37, 1.78 @ Potomac)
Interesting Kevin Keyes .504 SLG (leads team)

AUBURN 15-12, 3rd place, Pinckney Division, New York-Penn League, 1 game behind

Good Colin Bates 2-1, 1.93 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Bad Hendry Jimenez, 8E in 22G
Interesting Richie Mirowski 1.32 ERA, 13K in 13⅔ IP

GCL NATIONALS 8-13, 4th place, GCL East, 6 games back

Good Estarlin Martinez .324/.420/.606 in 21G
Bad Inocencio Heredia 10.29 ERA, 2.86 WHIP
Interesting Wes Schill 6SB in 17G

DSL NATIONALS 18-21, 5th place, Boca Chica South Division of Dominican Summer League, 6 games behind

Good Gilberto Mendez 3-0, 2.32 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Bad Diomedes Eusbio 12E in 32G
Interesting Dionicio Rosario 5A, 3E, 2DP in 34G as an OF

Good, Bad, Interesting – Vol. 9

Our weekly look at the leaders, trailers, and outliers in the Washington Nationals minor leagues.

SYRACUSE 27-37, 4th place I.L. North, 13 games behind

Good Ross Detwiler 2-1, 2.79ERA, .219 OBA in June
Bad Chris McConnell, .166/.240/.245
Interesting Tom Milone IL Leader, 76Ks (9.7/9IP)

HARRISBURG 36-28, 1st place E.L. West Division, 3 games ahead

Good Steve Lombardozzi .403/.464/.548 in June
Bad Pat McCoy 6HR in 25⅔ IP
Interesting Garrett Mock 24⅔ IP, 25H, 23R, 23ER, 22BB — still on 40-man roster

POTOMAC 28-39, 4th place C.L. North Division, 13 games behind

Good Cameron Selik, 2-0, 0.86ERA, 0.91WHIP in June
Bad Cutter Dykstra 48K in 51G, .253OBP
Interesting Mitchell Clegg 17 unearned runs in 11 appearances

HAGERSTOWN 37-30, 3rd place Sally League Northern Division, 2 games behind

Good David Freitas .411/.492/.679 in June
Bad 2-8 in last 10 games, six straight losses (current)
Interesting Paul Applebee 5-1, 3.86, 1.13WHIP in relief

DSL NATIONALS 7-8, 5th place, Boca Chica South Division of Dominican Summer League, 3 games behind

Good Anthony Marcelino (Age 18) 1-0, 0.57 in 1st three starts
Bad Raudy Read (Age 17) .143/.167/.171 in 10G
Interesting Inocencio Heredia (Age 19) 2-1, 2SV in 5 appearances

Good, Bad, Interesting – Vol. 6

Our weekly look at the leaders, trailers, and outliers in the Washington Nationals minor leagues.

SYRACUSE 16-22, 5th place I.L. North, 7 games behind

Good Chris Marrero .294/.362/.365 in May
Bad Ross Detwiler 1-4, 9.38 ERA, 2.17 WHIP in May
Interesting Josh Wilkie 1.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 10.89 K/9

HARRISBURG 23-20, 1st place E.L. West Division, 1 game ahead

Good Brad Peacock 7-1, 2.13 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 75K in 55IP
Bad Jimmy Barthmaier 1.90 WHIP, 4HR in 23⅔ IP
Interesting Bill Rhinehart 8HR, 17RBI

POTOMAC 18-27, 3rd place C.L. North Division, 10 games behind

Good Destin Hood .287/.333/.532 in May
Bad Joe Testa 2.04WHIP
Interesting Hector Nelo, spotted throwing 98mph

HAGERSTOWN 28-18, 1st place Sally League Northern Division, 1 game ahead

Good David Freitas .289/.392/.458
Bad Michael Taylor .280 OBP, 39K in 42G
Interesting Christopher Manno 6SV, 0.54WHIP, 33K in 17G

Good, Bad, Interesting – Vol. 4

Our weekly look at the leaders, trailers, and outliers in the Washington Nationals minor leagues.

SYRACUSE 12-21, 6th place I.L. North, 7 games behind

Good Tug Hulett .288/.373/.404 in 15G
Bad Alex Valdez .145/.234/.290 in 25G
Interesting Jeff Mandel 0.65WHIP in 5G

HARRISBURG 16-17, 3rd place E.L. West Division, 1½ games behind

Good Archie Gilbert .324/.400/.765 in last 10G
Bad Jimmy Barthmaier 2.07WHIP in 18.1 IP
Interesting Chris Rahl .333BA in 17G

POTOMAC 12-20, 4th place C.L. North Division, six games behind

Good Danny Rosenbaum 1.16WHIP, 1.98ERA
Bad Cutter Dykstra .473OPS
Interesting Evan Bronson 1.42ERA in 3G

HAGERSTOWN 22-12, 2nd place Sally League Northern Division, .009 W% behind

Good Bryce Harper .395/.473/.702
Bad Chris McKenzie 10.23ERA, 2.14WHIP
Interesting David Freitas .286/.395/.467, 25RBI in 30G

Season Review: 2010 Vermont Lake Monsters

At the time that I went to see them, the Vermont Lake Monsters were 7-3 and in the second game of an eight-game win streak that saw them roll up an 18-5 record before they would lose consecutive games.  After losing those two games, they ripped off three more wins to go to 21-7. They would not win two games in a row again until the final two games of the year, going 15-31 the rest of the way to finish at 36-38 and two games behind the eventual league champion Tri-City Valley Cats (coincidentally, the team I had visited the night before on my drive up).

Q: What the hell happened?
A: The pitching took a nosedive.

The top four starters had a combined ERA of 4.75, which is nearly a run higher than the league average of 3.80. The good news is that just one of those starters was a 2010 draftee; the rest of the 2010 draftees were relievers. The bad news is that two of the other three starters were from the 2009 draft.

As you might have already deduced (or guessed, Skipper), the hitting was in the top quartile of the league. As we’ve done the two reviews prior, let’s take a look at how Vermont compared to the rest of the league…

HITTING

TEAM AB R H HR BB SO AVG OBP SLG GPA SB
Vermont 2430 365 597 34 340 591 .246 .347 .353 .244 58
Lg. Avg. 2488 334 620 36 254 571 .249 .326 .362 .237 68

Bold = League Leader

PITCHING

TEAM IP ERA R/G WHIP HR BB SO H/9IP BB/9IP K/9IP K/BB
Vermont 649.0 4.47 5.07 1.408 43 266 587 9.0 3.7 8.1 2.21
Lg. Avg. 657.2 3.80 4.49 1.329 36 254 571 8.5 3.5 7.8 2.25

As it was with the GCL, there is some hope in the strength of team’s hitting. Leading the league in walks drawn is something that should not be taken lightly, especially for college bats adjusting to the wood-bat game. Those eighty or so “extra” baserunners helped offset league-average hitting and power, enabling the Lake Monsters to score 31 more runs than the league average.

Likewise, there is also some hope in the relievers that helped offset the poor starting pitching, as four relievers posted sub-3.00 ERAs while throwing more than 20 innings. Not surprisingly, three of those four piled up Ks at a rate of 10.2/9IP or more.

As before, I’m listing the Top 12 hitters and pitchers in terms of plate appearances and innings pitched and using defensive games played for the listing of position. The full statistics for the team can be found here.

Name Age Position(s) G @ Pos Fld% Err PA GPA
Jason Martinson 21 SS 68 .944 17 306 .242
Ronnie Labrie 23 1B 67 .990 6 280 .276
Chad Mozingo 21 CF/LF 42/17 .975 3 278 .239
Blake Kelso 21 3B/2B/SS 30/27/3 .949 10 274 .256
David Freitas 21 C 35 .994 2 261 .296
Wade Moore 22 RF/LF 57/3 .969 4 258 .275
Hendry Jimenez* 20 2B 45 .973 6 206 .201
Russell Moldenhauer 22 DH 1 @ 1B 1.000 0 162 .295
Kevin Keyes 21 LF/RF 35/3 .895 6 160 .214
Justin Miller 21 IF/OF 17/19 .902 8 155 .248
Connor Rowe 21 CF/RF/LF 11/21/7 .955 3 140 .195
Cole Leonida 21 C 31 .988 3 120 .154

Bold = 2010 Draftee      Italics = 2009 Draftee * = DSL Graduate

Obviously, the thing that jumps out is the usage of Russell Moldenhauer, the team leader in slugging percentage. With two catchers to evaluate (Freitas and Leonida), it was clear that when one would catch, the other would DH or sit, which begs the question: Why weren’t Labrie and Moldenhauer rotating at first base? The most logical deduction is that Moldenhauer is a terrible fielder, given that Moldenahauer did not play defensively at all for University of Texas this year and only played enough to register 53 putouts in the three seasons prior to 2010.

Seven of these twelve hitters were sent to the Florida Instructional League; a good sign that they’ll be in Hagerstown in 2011 and perhaps one may even jump to Potomac (best guess: David Freitas). Folks in Hagerstown should have another decent season in terms of offense, especially as the GCL standouts are mixed in with this bunch.

On to the pitchers, and should you be reading this past 5 p.m., this might be the time to pour yourself a cold adult beverage…

PLAYER AGE G/GS W-L, SV ERA IP H BB SO WHIP HBP WP
Matt Swynenberg 21 14/12 5-2, 0 4.60 62⅔ 65 17 43 1.309 6 2
Taylor Jordan 21 13/13 2-3, 0 4.94 62 73 17 54 1.452 5 3
Bobby Hansen 20 13/12 3-2, 0 4.79 56⅓ 72 19 51 1.615 7 7
Chad Jenkins 20 15/12 2-7, 0 4.67 54 40 34 52 1.370 13 3
Colin Bates 22 15/5 3-3, 2 5.40 48⅓ 55 8 45 1.303 6 2
Wilson Eusebio* 21 16/0 2-1, 0 4.26 44⅓ 44 26 32 1.579 3 11
Neil Holland 21 19/0 3-1, 3 2.20 32⅔ 25 9 37 1.041 2 2
Ryan Demmin 22 14/1 2-1, 2 1.45 31 25 10 32 1.129 1 0
Dustin Crane 23 19/0 2-2, 2 4.60 29⅓ 23 18 20 1.398 1 10
Cameron Selik 22 15/0 1-0, 1 2.54 28⅓ 22 13 32 1.235 2 2
Christopher McKenzie 20 8/6 1-2, 0 8.54 26⅓ 40 12 22 1.975 1 2
Mark Herrera 21 14/0 2-1, 1 2.88 25 20 8 31 1.120 2 4

Digging deeper into the usage, it would appear that the m.o. was to use last year’s college guys to start, and this year’s guys to relieve. The three ’09 draftees each started last season in the GCL. Two (Jenkins and Swynenburg) were sent up to Vermont and did not respond well to the challenge and thus, they repeated. Therefore, we may have some tea leaves to read in terms of guessing who’ll be in Auburn next summer and who won’t.

OBLIGATORY TOP FIVE LISTS
Finally, I can say I saw some of these guys (OK, maybe it was just once, but I can still say it). So here goes with the five bats and five arms to watch in 2011:

Top 5 Batters
1. David Freitas
2. Russell Moldenhauer
3. Wade Moore
4. Blake Kelso
5. Jason Martinson

Top 5 Pitchers
1. Neil Holland
2. Mark Herrera
3. Ryan Demmin
4. Taylor Jordan
5. Chad Jenkins