Dec 222012
 

reindogs-2012As I take a break from humiliating training the new staff, let me pass along a few small news items while wait out the offseason.

The new ballpark saga in Hagerstown meanders on, despite some rather ominous signs that it’s going to fade away, like most ballpark proposals do.

In upstate New York, the mood is a little different. To borrow from Henny Youngman, it’s take our ballpark… please, as the county government seems eager to rid itself of the maintenance expense, which is typically a battle between governments and teams — especially when things break or degrade unexpectedly.

Finally, minor-league baseball wrapped up its organizational all-stars with Washington, choosing the best at each position (“regardless of age or prospect status”) with few surprises — I might have chosen Jeff Kobernus over Cutter Dykstra, but like the BA awards, we don’t know when the selections were made — as the accolades for the likes of Nathan Karns, Brian Goodwin, and Matt Skole continue.

Dec 202012
 

Accompanying each team’s Top 10 per Baseball America is a chat for subscribers only. As such, I have to paraphrase and condense, which I’ve done per prospect, per ranking. I’ve then cherry-picked some names that came up in the chat. If it’s in brackets, those are my clarifications or amplifications. Otherwise, you’re looking at the opinions of Aaron Fitt.

1) Anthony Rendon — Could force a move of Ryan Zimmerman to 1B, but the Nats haven’t indicated their long-term plan; it’s still wait-and-see.

2) Lucas Giolito — If he were completely healthy, he’d be listed along with the likes of Gerrit Cole, Dylan Bundy, and Archie Bradley in a discussion of the top pitching prospects.

3) Brian Goodwin — [In response to the Jackie Bradley Jr. comp] Bradley is a safer prospect because of his hit tool, plus he’s more advanced on defense but Goodwin has louder raw tools — more power potential, more speed.

4) Matt Skole — There are some similarities to Chris Marrero, being only a year younger and still in A-ball, but his power output and his walk total are two encouraging signs. Skole strikes out plenty, but his strikeout-walk rate is 1.3-1 thus far as a pro [Marrero’s is 2.1-1], similar to what it was at Georgia Tech. You have to like power hitters who can offset their strikeouts by drawing lots of walks.

5) Nathan Karns — Has a physical frame and the makings of three quality pitches — a real chance to be a big league starter, though he could also thrive in a late-innings relief role [have a feeling that if he struggles in Harrisburg, they might make this switch sooner rather than later].

6) Christian Garcia — A bullpen guy all the way. He’s got starter stuff— three above-average pitches when he’s on his game — but durability is an issue.

7) Eury Perez — An 80 runner, mentioned in conjunction with discussion of Billy Burns as to the org’s fastest, who got the nod, though Fitt said it was not a unanimous choice, with Jeff Kobernus getting votes, too.

8) Sammy Solis — Not discussed.

9) Matt Purke — The expectation is that he’ll be 100% in ST, but you never know with a shoulder issue, especially one that has lingered for a couple of years now. Still some concern that he peaked as a freshman at TCU.

10) Zach Walters — Not discussed.

Michael Taylor — An outstanding defender in center field, but scouts worry about the length in his swing [266 K’s in 278 G].

Chris Marrero — A one-dimensional player who needs to really hit for power to have value but hasn’t slugged .500 since 2007 at Hagerstown.

Destin Hood — For a guy who’s supposed to have raw power, hard to get over just 26 homers in 1600-plus career at-bats; only three last year [Almost precisely what our Hagerstown guy said in 2010].

Sandy Leon — An outstanding defender — a plus receiver with good agility and blocking skills, and a slightly [a misspelling of “significantly”] above-average arm that he really knows how to use. He’s made huge strides offensively, though unlikely to ever be an impact hitter.

Corey Brown — A fourth outfielder [in MLB] with some power, and he’s a good enough athlete with enough arm strength to fill in anywhere in the outfield, but unlikely to hit enough to be a regular.

Ivan Pineyro — [Name a sleeper below High-A] A Dominican righty who just turned 21 this September, whose velocity tops out at 94 and has a changeup that could become a plus pitch.

Brett Mooneyham — Has a great pitcher’s frame, plenty of athleticism and arm strength from the left side, but has a long way to go [in terms of his mechanics].

Aaron Barrett — Stuff is pretty average — fastball (91-92) and a slightly above-average slider that eats up hitters at lower levels — but could eventually become a middle reliever.

Wirkin Estevez — Had TJ surgery this fall [first I’ve heard of it — will edit the Watchlist accordingly].

Tony Renda — Similar to Lombardozzi, but not as defensively adept or a switch-hitter [thus endeth the comps to Dustin Pedroia].

Jason Martinson — A player with power potential, athleticism and a shortstop’s skills, but already 24 years old and a long way to go as a hitter.

Dec 192012
 

Only a couple of surprises here, but let’s cut to the chase before we discuss…

1. Anthony Rendon, 3b
2. Lucas Giolito, rhp
3. Brian Goodwin, of
4. Matt Skole, 3b
5. Nathan Karns, rhp
6. Christian Garcia, rhp
7. Eury Perez, of
8. Sammy Solis, lhp
9. Matt Purke, lhp
10. Zach Walters, ss

For me, the surprises are Christian Garcia, Nathan Karns, Matt Skole and Matt Purke. My bad on overlooking Garcia — in my head, he’s already “graduated” and will be a bullpen fixture; clearly I’m getting ahead of myself — which, along with Skole and Karns, is a bit of a departure from the slavish devotion to youth. Of course, that Skole and Karns have been getting so much virtual ink may also have something to do with it.

Purke surprises me for the same reason I was sure that Solis would make the list: His surgery wouldn’t be held against him. Indeed, BA did not deviate from its norms of hyperbole when selecting Lucas Giolito as having the organization’s “Best Fastball” and “Best Curveball” despite his UCL replacement (yes, TJ surgery has a high success rate, but it’s not 100%). Still, it’s a little odd that Purke fell beneath Solis in the rankings despite having a less invasive procedure done.

The free article focuses on the parent club and how the system produced the talent that fueled the unexpected (for the honest, at least) playoff run in 2012. And of course, BA is effusive in its praise for the selections of Strasburg and Harper in ’09 and ’10 as well as Rendon in ’11 and Giolito in ’12 (as for the rest of the 2012 draft, BA was like the lawyers responding to Billy Ray Valentine’s plea for help in the men’s club in “Trading Places”).

The projections for where the 2013 Top 10 will start the year were as follows:
MLB — Garcia
AAA — Perez, Walters
AA — Rendon, Goodwin, Skole, Karns
Lo-A — Purke
XST/Rehab — Giolito, Solis

Again, no big shocks — though the verb for Skole was “reach,” not “start” and they also qualified his placement with “his hands are sure enough to play at either corner,” which I can’t fault them for since everybody outside the organization sees him as a 1B but the Nationals have yet to fully commit to the position switch. Likewise, they projected Solis to start in XST and then head north on a rehab tour. My guess would be that he goes to Hagerstown for the three-inning stints and then moves up to Potomac for when he’s given the five-inning limit, then moved to Harrisburg if/when the coaches like what they see (that’s my CYA if/when he gets the bump despite poor nos.)

Dec 192012
 

Yes, things have slowed to a crawl in the minor-league front. Hence, a post about an upcoming post to keep the site fresh.

As the headline says, Baseball America is expected to release its Top 10 list for 2013. Mark Zuckerman remarks that it’s been roughly a year since the Nats had their on-paper #1 ranking, which vanished with the trade of Tommy Milone, Brad Peacock, A.J. Cole, and Derek Norris for Gio Gonzalez and Rob Gilliam.

We won’t know where the Nats will rank relative to the rest of major-league baseball for another few weeks, but it’s likely going to be a wee bit lower than #1. Probably around 25, if I had to guess. Speaking of which… I’ll take a swag at what that Top 10 list will be while we await the official release:

1. Anthony Rendon
2. Lucas Giolito
3. Brian Goodwin
4. Matt Purke
5. Eury Perez
6. Brett Mooneyham
7. Tony Renda
8. Matt Skole
9. Nathan Karns
10. Sammy Solis

As I’ve written in the comments, there’s likely to be some angst in the general Natmosphere about the drop from 1 to 20-something. Thing is, that’s how the system is supposed to work: also-rans get first crack at the top amateur talent to improve the parent club, contenders have to work harder to keep the younger talent coming, which is what we hope the farm is transitioning towards: a model of developing major-league players on a regular basis, some of which will play in D.C. while others will not.

Dec 142012
 

International SignWith a H/T to Marcus for bringing this to my attention, the Nationals have signed a 16-year-old third baseman Neivy Pilier for $225,000 — the second-largest spend since the infamous 2006 signing of 16-year-old Esmailyn Gonzalez 20-year-old Carlos Alvarez.
(Centerfielder Luis Guzman was signed this past July for $385K).

Baseball America broke the news first, describing him as:

At 6-foot-1, 180 pounds, Pilier has a quick bat with lift and occasional power in his righthanded swing, though he’s at his best when he stays with a line-drive approach and uses the middle of the field. He has a strong arm that fits well at third base, though with his youth and size he’s still trying to improve his footwork.

Pilier reportedly turned 16 on August 1st, and according to Adam Kilgore’s post, must still undergo MLB’s vetting for age and indentity.

In other news, the Nationals continue to stockpile minor-league veterans with the signing of 27-year-old Brian Bocock, who is most likely going to see time in Syracuse next summer.

Dec 112012
 

Now that the Rule 5 draft is over, it’s time to finalize the 2013 NationalsProspects.com Watchlist.

Most of the changes I made from when we discussed this a couple weeks ago are fairly obvious — players lost to the Rule 5, Denard Span trade have been removed; a couple of switches from one column to the next based on the comments that persuaded me. There were no major changes to the position/pitcher categories; I was not convinced to make a change.

So what’s next?

Well, I’m in the process of cleaning up the original 2011 watchlist — when I was forced to switch WordPress themes last summer, I never got around to reformatting the player reports — and renaming pages to make it easier to navigate. Just a heads up in case you’re searching through the player reports, which of course, a post like this may inspire. (Typos will still be blamed on the either the current copyeditor or the previous one)

Once that’s done, I’ll start to write the player reports that I can (i.e. the Potomac players) while I await the Baseball America and John Sickels books to hit the streets and/or e-mail in January.

In the meantime, I’d recommend folks take a peek at the idea I will steal from him next year excellent work Todd Boss has done aggregating Sickels’ opinions on the Nats’ 2012 draft along with his own work detailing how the entire class did in their first pro season.

C 1B 2B SS 3B OF
Leon Marrero Sanchez Walters Rivero E. Perez
Kieboom Bloxom Renda Hague Rendon Goodwin
Manuel Keyes Foat Martinson Skole Hood
P. Severino Pleffner Lippincott Difo D. Eusebio Taylor
Oduber
Souza
Burns
McQuillan
B. Miller
E. Martinez
W. Ramos
Piwinica-Worms
RHPs LHPs DSL Guys M*A*S*H Notables (Bats) Notables (Arms)
Garcia Ray O. Abreu Meyers Brown Lehman
E. Davis Grace Bautista Komatsu Solano Kimball
Demny Meza Diaz Selik Dykstra W. Estevez
Karns Lee E. Gomez Solis Ramsey Schwartz
Wort Mooneyham Novas Applebee Nieto Pineyro
Holland Barrientos Read Purke Mesa C. Davis
Barrett Je. Rodriguez Jordan S. Perez I. Heredia
Rauh Ruiz Anderson Jennings Williams
Encarnacion Silvestre M. Rodriguez
Hudgins Valerio Giolito
Mendez
Vasquez

Maroon = Top 10 Position Player
Indigo = Top 10 Pitcher

Dec 092012
 

Time for our semi-weekly look at how the Nationals farmhands are doing in the offseason/winter leagues. All statistics as of 12/09/2012 12:40 a.m. EST.
VWL HITTERS

DWL HITTERS

PRWL HITTERS

DWL PITCHERS

MWL PITCHERS

PRWL PITCHER




As always, once the numbers “freeze,” I drop the player from graphic to save time/space. Most winter leagues will finish up in three weeks, with the Dominican Winter League closing out a week from Friday.

This, of course, is one of the dead zones of the offseason — first full day of Hanukkah, the start of week three for Christmas — as we await news with a minor-league angle. The usual press release about the managers and coaches has yet to be issued. The next transaction post from Baseball America will be watched a bit more closely, to see if the Nats will sign some FAs to replace the four arms lost in the Rule 5 draft.

Still no indication when John Sickels or Baseball Prospectus plans to tackle Washington’s Top 10/15/20 prospects (Baseball America covers the Nats on the 19th). If you’re really desperate to look at a list, Marc Hulet has a Top 15 compiled prior to the Rule 5 that was released on Friday at Fangraphs.com, while MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo updated his ongoing Top 20 after the Rule 5 (spoiler: Jeff Kobernus and Danny Rosenbaum out, Brandon Miller and Jordan Taylor in).

Dec 062012
 

For the second straight year, two Nationals were selected during the MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft — LHP Danny Rosenbaum and 2B Jeff Kobernus.

Rosenbaum was selected third by the Colorado Rockies. Colorado Rockies blog Purple Row describes the selection:

Rosenbaum will compete for a bullpen job vacated by Matt Reynolds. Josh Outman had been penciled in as the second lefty in the bullpen, joining Rex Brothers, but this move allows Outman to start, or for Colorado to have three lefties in their pen.

Kobernus was taken seventh by the Boston Red Sox, then subsequently traded to the Detroit Tigers for 28-year-old AAA utilityman Justin Henry. Not coincidentally, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was quoted via MLB.com’s Justin Beck:

We not only like his ability to play second, but we think that perhaps — and he hasn’t really done much of it — he could have some versatility where we might be able to move him to the outfield and get some playing time there

In the 1st round of the AAA phase, the Red Sox “struck” again by taking Boston native Jack McGeary, while Hector Nelo was taken by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second round. Unlike the MLB phase, these players do not have to be offered back to the original club.

McGeary had Tommy John surgery in 2010 and has only pitched 25⅓ innings in 2011 and 2012 — all but 7⅔ innings in the GCL. He was originally drafted in the 6th round of the 2007 draft.

Nelo was signed as a minor-league free agent in April 2011 after being released by the Texas Rangers. While capable of throwing in the triple digits, the 26-year-old Miami-born Floridian had a radar-gun strike zone, meaning the higher the number the more likely it was a ball if the batter did not swing.

As expected, the Nationals did not make any picks in the MLB phase. A slight surprise: They also passed in the AAA and AA phases as well.

The 2012 Watchlist
has been updated to reflect the selections.

Dec 062012
 

The Rule 5 Draft is this morning, the anticlimactic denouement to the 2012 Winter Meetings.

As written last month, it’s nearly certain that the Nationals will not be taking anybody in the major-league phase, which is rather typical for first-division/contenders. Instead, there’s a chance that a couple of farmhands may be taken as they were a year ago.

However, there’s a difference between players selected and actually being gone for good. Both picks last year — Brad Meyers and Erik Komatsu — were eventually returned.

Here’s another pass at who might get taken, filtered through the lens of the most common categories of players selected in the MLB phase:

Relievers 4th OF Utility IF
Pat Lehman Destin Hood Jeff Kobernus
Paul Demny    
Pat McCoy    
Rob Wort    

Of this group, only Lehman has AAA experience, which makes him the most likely to get selected, followed by Kobernus. But both are longshots in the big picture. There’s probably a better chance of the Nationals having players taken in the AAA and AA phases (and vice-versa), but as written previously, it’s impossible to even guess who because the protected lists are not publicly released.

Dec 052012
 

The pattern of a (near-)unanimous few then the biases of the many continues with the votes for the Nationals’ Top 10 Pitchers. Thirty different pitchers received votes, but only two appeared on each of the thirteen ballots cast (Lucas Giolito and Nathan Karns) while two more were named on all but one (Sammy Solis and Matt Purke).

1. Lucas Giolito
2. Nathan Karns
3. Matt Purke
4. Sammy Solis
5. Christian Garcia
6. Erik Davis
7. Danny Rosenbaum
8. Aaron Barrett
9. Brett Mooneyham
10. Robbie Ray

Others receiving votes: Rob Wort, Rafael Martin, Neil Holland, Paul Demny, Pedro Encarnacion, Taylor Jordan, Christian Meza, Jeff Mandel, Cole Kimball, Brad Meyers, Wirkin Estevez, Pat McCoy, Ryan Tatusko, Robert Benincasa, Derek Self, Hector Nelo, Josh Smoker, Jack McGeary, Nick Lee

Perhaps more disturbing is that we don’t see a pitcher who hasn’t had shoulder or elbow surgery until the #6 hurler, Erik Davis, who instead has had knee problems, according to MASN’s Byron Kerr.

Close behind is the realization that half of this list is 25 or older. Put another way: just 10 of these 30 pitchers voted for were born after 1990.

As I wrote back in September in discussing the Nationals farm, it’s pretty clear that the organization’s strength has shifted away from developing pitchers to position players. Perhaps more evident: surgery and long periods of rehab seem to be the gamble the Nats are willing to make — regardless of a pitcher’s age or ailment — to get pitching potential. What remains to be seen is whether this approach will pay off frequently enough to warrant the shifting of innings or roles away from healthier and/or lower-ceiling guys.

I hope folks enjoyed this experiment in crowdsourcing. Next up on the minor-league calendar is the Rule 5 draft. The Nats are nearly certain not to be takers in the MLB phase (thus, no preview this year), and may even have a player or two taken, though the odds are extremely short that any player taken will be gone for good.