Category Archives: News and Notes

Sickels On The Pitchers

  By Luke Erickson | February 9, 2011 - 8:03 am | ,
18 Comments

Shortly after Thanksgiving, John Sickels revealed his Top 20 for the Nationals. A little more than three weeks ago, we learned that three Nationals made his Top 50 batters list. Now, let’s take a look at the rest of the players.

I decided to break this up by batters and pitchers, since Sickels doesn’t rank them like BA. Instead he gives letter grades… and he doesn’t grade on a curve — he is very, very tough. As he himself puts it, a C+ grade is good praise, but he is careful to note that the grade is relative, i.e. a Rookie-ball Grade C prospect could end up a star while a AAA grade C is likely to end up as a backup or long reliever.

When it comes to pitchers, Sickels has some guiding principals…

…AA is the ultimate test for finesse pitchers

…K/BB ratio is a strong bellwether

…K/IP ratio can indicate “stuff” but not necessarily velocity

…H/IP ratio is a good complement to K/IP, but should be taken with a grain of salt given the variances in defense [and scorekeeping]

…HR rate — all things being equal, young pitchers that don’t give a lot of HRs are better than those that do

As you might have guessed, Sickels is a Bill James disciple in that he uses statistics to help identify trends and anomalies (see below with Brad Peacock). But he most certainly believes in the value in scouting to identify the intangibles like effort, body language, kinetics, athleticism, etc.

Here’s a look at the 21 pitchers that Sickels graded (2010 grade in parentheses)…

A.J. Cole – B Tyler Hanks – C Tanner Roark – C
Sammy Solis – B Taylor Jordan – C Brian Broderick – C
Robby Ray – B- Josh Smoker – C (C) Atahualpa Severino – C (C)
Brad Peacock – C+ (C) Paul Demny – C (C) Josh Wilkie – C (C)
Henry Rodriguez – C+ (B-) Elvin Ramirez – C Adam Carr – C (B- in ’08)
Brad Meyers – C+ (C+) Danny Rosenbaum – C Adrian Alaniz – C (C)
Cole Kimball – C+ Tom Milone – C (C) Yunesky Maya – C

So why are some of those guys bolded? Glad you asked. These are the guys that weren’t listed in the BA book, and I take a great deal of pride that nearly all of them made our watchlist.

A couple of other notes…
…Rob Wort was one of three Nationals to make the manuscript but not the book — which Sickels calls his “cutting room floor” — and would have been listed as a Grade-C prospect.

…Brad Peacock and Danny Rosenbaum were both given Sickels’ “Sleeper Alert” tag. Peacock got the nod because there is a disconnect between his stuff and his results; he’s never had an ERA below 4.00 yet has a career W-L of 19-35 while his FIPs have been consistently lower than his ERAs (e.g. 3.14 vs. 4.44 at Potomac). With Rosenbaum, it’s more of a gut feel based on his strong GO/AO ratio (1.90) and perhaps, as he alluded back in November, he’s something of a Milone clone (hey, that rhymes).

I’d give more detail (as I did last year, but that was *after* the printed run had sold out), but knowing that Sickels is basically a two-person operation (he and his wife Jeri), I’d strongly recommend folks purchase the book and support what I consider to be the best in the business.

[For those wondering, the pic is a nod to the "hanging fruit" metaphor in the comments. That's what's known as an orchard ladder, used for picking the fruit from the highest branches]

The BA Prospect Handbook, Part Two

  By Luke Erickson | February 8, 2011 - 7:36 am | ,
23 Comments

Picking up where we left off yesterday, here’s 16 through 30 on the Baseball America Top 30 list for 2011…

16. Tom Milone, LHP
17. Adrian Sanchez, 2B/3B
18. A.J. Morris, RHP
19. Michael Burgess, OF
20. Elvin Ramirez, RHP
21. Jeff Kobernus, 2B
22. Jason Martinson, SS
23. Danny Rosenbaum, LHP
24. Tyler Moore, 1B
25. J.P. Ramirez, OF
26. Ryan Tatusko, RHP
27. Brad Meyers, RHP
28. Trevor Holder, RHP
29. Adam Carr, RHP
30. Hassan Pena, RHP

As mentioned yesterday, there were 14 holdovers — Norris, Espinosa, Marrero, Kobernus, Burgess, Hood, Perez, Meyers, Morris, Brad Peacock, Hassan Pena, Lombardozzi, J.P. Ramirez, and Rosenbaum. Burgess and Morris have since been traded, which means that there 16 newcomers to the list. Here’s the breakdown of they came into the system:

2010 Draft — Harper (1), Cole (4), Solis (6), Hague (14), Ray (15) , Martinson (22)

2010 Acquisitions — Ramos (5), Tatusko (26), Elvin Ramirez (20)

2010 IFA — Maya (11)

2009 Draft — Holder (28)

2008 Draft — Milone (16), Moore (24)

2007 IFA — Sanchez (17)

2006 Draft — Kimball (7), Carr (29)

As you can see, there’s a reason why the Nationals jumped from #24 to #14 and it’s not just Bryce Harper. Almost half of the Top 30 has been drafted or acquired under the Rizzo front office, and more than a third were brought in last year alone. That’s in quite stark contrast to Bowden’s Reign of Error, particularly the ’06 draft, which is has yet to produce a single major-leaguer (Marrero, Pena, and Brad Peacock join Kimball and Carr as ’06ers, so there’s still a little bit of hope). Thus, even without the #1 pick overall, there’s reason to believe that things can continue to improve with a deep draft this June and the Nationals possessing three of the first 34 picks.

As Brian Oliver pointed out last week, there are still reasons to be concerned. The list is roughly 50/50 in terms of pitchers and position players, but there are more relievers than starters. It tends to skew older, in part because the ’07-’08 drafts were more college-oriented, but also in part because the ’06 draft was such a perfect failure. Espinosa is poised to become just the second homegrown bat since the club set up shop in Washington — that’s two position players in six drafts, three in seven if you want to count Desmond. And until Jordan Zimmermann or Stephen Strasburg pitches a full season, John Lannan remains the team’s best homegrown starter.

But if folks are looking for reason to hope, take a look at BA’s projected 2014 lineup for Washington. Now, a lot of things have to go right  (this is taking-the-tartar-sauce-while-you-go-after-the-whale optimism) for this to happen, but with a week to go until pitchers and catchers report, hope springs eternal, right?

C – Wlson Ramos
1B – Derek Norris
2B – Danny Espinosa
SS – Ian Desmond
3B – Ryan Zimmerman
LF – Jayson Werth
CF – Eury Perez
RF – Bryce Harper
#1P – Stephen Strasburg
#2P – Jordan Zimmermann
#3P – A.J. Cole
#4P – Sammy Solis
#5P – John Lannan
CL – Drew Storen

The BA Prospect Handbook, Part One

  By Luke Erickson | February 7, 2011 - 8:29 am | ,
17 Comments

Last week, the estimable Brian Oliver graced us with his thoughts about the state of the Nationals Farm system, citing the recently arrived Baseball America Prospect Handbook and the #14 organizational ranking for the Nationals. This week, I’d like to take some time discussing some of the other highlights from the book.

While I still think BA is a bit of a cheerleader, and that Sickels remains the gold standard, I’ve come to the conclusion that the handbook is a lot like the U.S. News & World Report’s “Best Colleges” issue: You can berate its status, lament its influence, but you just can’t ignore it. I may not always agree with them, but I will say that my opinion of BA has changed for the better.

The book ranks the Top 30 prospects. Two of the 2011 Top 30 were traded away with the acquisition of Tom Gorzelanny (Michael Burgess, A.J. Morris). As the headline suggests, I’m breaking up the list to have multiple posts and discussion fodder . But before I do that, let’s take a look at what happened to last year’s Top 30:

Graduated (6) — Stephen Strasubrg, Drew Storen, Ian Desmond, Justin Maxwell, Luis Atilano, Roger Bernadina

Lost On Waivers (3) — Aaron Thompson, Juan Jaime, Marco Estrada

Traded (3) — Michael Burgess, A.J. Morris, Graham Hicks

Retired (1) — Will Atwood

Dropped Out (5) — J.R. Higley, Jack McGeary, Atahualpa Severino, Adrian Nieto, Jeff Mandel

If you’re following the parenthetical numbers and doing the math, then you know that 14 of this year’s Top 30 prospects are holdovers (12 if you exclude Burgess and Morris) and there are 16 new names on the list. For the sake of comparison, let’s look at the two organizations that were above and below the Nationals #24 organization ranking last year. The #23 Chicago White Sox (this year’s #27) also had 14 holdovers from 2010 to 2011 while the #25 New York Mets (this year’s #20) had 18 holdovers.

Clearly, the newcomers Nats’ Top 30 are the difference, but I think it’s fair to say that’s not just simply the addition of a certain 18-year-old phenom. As Baseball America put it: “Last year, the Nationals system consisted of Stephen Strasburg, Ian Desmond and a few other contributors. This year’s system is Bryce Harper, Derek Norris, Danny Espinosa and the 2010 draft class [italics mine], but the top is heavy enough to put the Nats in the first half of the rankings.”

Tomorrow, I’ll break down the 16 “new guys” in terms of how they were acquired, but without further ado, here’s the first 15 of the Baseball America Top 30 Prospects for the Washington Nationals…

  1. Bryce Harper, OF
  2. Derek Norris, C
  3. Danny Espinosa, SS/2B
  4. A.J. Cole, RHP
  5. Wilson Ramos, C
  6. Sammy Solis, LHP
  7. Cole Kimball, RHP
  8. Eury Perez, OF
  9. Chris Marrero, OF
  10. Brad Peacock, RHP
  11. Yunesky Maya, RHP
  12. Destin Hood, OF
  13. Steve Lombardozzi, 2B
  14. Rick Hague, SS
  15. Robbie Ray, LHP

Catching Up On Transactions

  By Luke Erickson | February 5, 2011 - 8:26 am | ,
15 Comments

I know there’s been a flurry of moves lately, but because this is a site focused on the minor leagues, I tend to stick to my niche and not report on each and every Washington move and spring invite. Nevertheless, I felt like there might be some value in presenting a “cheat sheet” that covers the moves since minor-league free agency period began in early November (shortening the list, natch).

This is not a comprehensive list, but a high-level look at the guys that have moved around. I’m excluding the more established major-leaguers that will, in my opinion, be cut loose and not go to Syracuse if they don’t make the parent club. Likewise, the “Outrighted” is a bit of a catch-all to indicate the guys that were, in essence, removed from the 40-man but remain with the organization. The exception is J.D. Martin because there was a significant gap between when he was released and re-signed (as opposed to Joe Bisenius). Similarly, I’m combining the Rule 5 guys lost in December with the guys lost to make room for Carr, Kimball and Marrero in November as “Lost On Waivers.”

And in the spirit of Fred The Baker, the player reports are now done.

Signed Re-Signed Released Outrighted
P Tim Wood IF Adam Fox P Martin Beno P Jesse English
SS Chris McConnell P Carlos Martinez P Dustin Crane P Joe Bisenius
OF Jonathan Tucker P Jimmy Bathmaier P Zach Gerler P Ryan Mattheus
OF Buck Coats IF Brian Bixler P John Santiago P Matt Chico
OF Archie Gilbert C Carlos Maldonado P Shane Zellers P Shairon Martis
OF Jonathan Van Every C Devin Ivany P Randy Mower
OF Jeff Frazier P J.D. Martin OF Marcus Jones
1B Michael Aubrey OF Nick Moresi
P Harvey Garcia
IF Matt Antonelli
IF Alex Valdez
1B Kevin Barker
Lost on Waivers Rule 5 Pickups Traded Acquired
P Aaron Thompson P Brian Broderick P A.J. Morris P Henry Rodriguez
P Juan Jaime P Elvin Ramirez OF Michael Burgess OF Corey Brown
UT Michael Martinez P Michael Allen P Graham Hicks P Adam Olbrychowski

More From The MLBA: Pitchers

  By Luke Erickson | February 4, 2011 - 9:43 am | ,
8 Comments

Before I jump into the post about the pitchers, let me take a little side trip and point folks towards this item on yet another National minor-leaguer suspended for PEDs. Simply put, this is a black mark against the organization, no matter how you spin it. The cynical take is that “Yay, this means I’ll get to see David Freitas sooner,” but I also know that comes at the expense of a young man that, at the very least, will be knocked back to Auburn for the summer, and quite possibly could be released. I’d much rather see a prospect flame out by competition versus immolation.

Back to post…

Now that folks are familiar with the system, let’s take a look at which pitchers were written up, shall we?

A.J. Cole (19) – 9D

Sammy Solis (22) – 8C
Throws from low 3/4 slot without a slider and features a plus changeup

Brad Meyers (25) – 8C (7C)
Long, lean, and throws the classic arsenal (FB, SL, CV, CU) and works well in the lower third of the zone

Cole Kimball (25) – 8D
Decent three-pitch arsenal (FB, SL, CU) and made great strides, moving from A+ to AA with dominant numbers (12.3K/9 at AA)

Jack McGeary (22) – 8D

Robbie Ray (19) – 8D

Pat Lehman (24) – 7B (7B)
Like Holder, gave up the long ball and didn’t hurt himself with walks, but got more strikeouts (9.1/9) with a decent slider.

Brad Peacock (23) – 7C
Mastery of his changeup was the key to his breakthrough season, making his mid-90s FB even faster

Trevor Holder (24) – 7C (7D)
Cannot survive up in the zone, as evidenced by the 11HR’s given up at Potomac, but throws strikes and doesn’t give in to batters

Athualpa Severino (26) – 7C
Primarily listed due to the slim chance he has to make the club as a LOOGY

Josh Smoker (22) – 7C (8D)

Aaron Barrett (23) – 7D

Colton Willems (22) – 6E (8E)
Um, what part of “retire” did they not understand?

###

Now, as I pause for you to wipe off the coffee or soda that you just spit onto your screen…

This is indefensibly bad. Apparently neither retirement (Willems) nor in-season Tommy John surgery (McGeary) is enough to get you booted from the list. Missing nearly the entire year (Myers) can somehow improve your chances? Pat Lehman, who is shorter than I am, has apparently grown to 6′ 6″ and has a better chance of making it to the majors than a younger pitcher that finished the season at AA.

Suffice it to say, this is the last MLBA post and the final time I’ll be buying this book. My apologies if you were hoping for more than snark and comedy.

Nationals Trade Maxwell To Yankees

  By Luke Erickson | February 2, 2011 - 3:02 pm | ,
10 Comments

As the pic suggests, the other shoe has dropped on the Maxwell DFA and it’s a typographer’s nightmare Adam Olbrychowski, a 24-year-old reliever that went 3-2 with a save and 3.90 ERA in 32 games pitching at Hi-A Tampa and AA Trenton.

Olbrychowski was drafted in 5th round of the 2007 draft out of Pepperdine University and worked as a starter for his first two pro seasons but had below-average results and poor control. In 2009, he converted to relief but continued to give up free passes (40 in 58IP as a reliever). He repeated at Tampa in 2010, cutting down on the walks (27 in 59IP) and earning a late bump up to Trenton.

Like many Rizzo acquisitions, Olbrychowski has good size (6’3″, 200) and throws hard with late sink, thus keeping the ball in the yard (1HR in 67IP last year). Throughout his career, however, the knock has been the lack of polish on his secondary pitches. Like Rule 5 pickup Michael Allen, Olbrychowski appears to be a project but with more upside. He was not listed in any of the major 2011 prospect books.

UPDATE:
Shairon Martis has cleared waivers and was outrighted to Syracuse. He will be a non-roster invitee to Spring Training, according to the Nationals PR.

Like a Bad Penny

  By NFA_Brian | February 2, 2011 - 7:57 am | ,
28 Comments

Just when I thought I was out… they pull me back in.

I may have walked away from NFA last September but I didn’t stop following the minor leagues, and Sue was nice enough to offer me a place here to dip my toe back into the prospect pool one more time.

As Sue has mentioned, it’s the time of year for the prospect guides and I happily received my copy of the 2011 Baseball America Prospect Handbook last week. Fortunately for me (and my grading/lesson plans), there have been a couple of “snow” days and a pair of teacher workdays allowing me to dive into the BA Handbook.

The guys at BA do a tremendous job putting together a tome that discusses more than 900 of the top prospects in MLB, complete with scouting reports and projected ports of call to begin the 2011 season. As most who know my inclination is towards seeing how the Nationals are doing from a player-development point of view.

Back in 2005, BA ranked a threadbare Nationals system #26, led by the likes of Mike Hinckley and Larry Broadway. In 2006, Ryan Zimmerman allowed them to move up to #24, but aside from the anomaly of 2008 (BA was crazy to let the drafting of the left-handed firm of Detwiler, Smoker & McGeary cast that much influence on rankings [#10 overall]), the Nationals have been in the bottom third of the BA talent rankings for most of the last decade.

This year, the folks at BA have moved the Nationals to the top half of the class (#14 overall) and this time it’s with some merit. They have done a nice job of restocking and rebuilding a farm system torn apart by MLB ownership and mismanaged by Jim Bowden’s reign of error. Scanning the top 30 (or 31 if you ordered directly from BA… hello Sandy Leon), it has a nice balance of bats and arms, some close to the majors (Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos), some a year or two away (Derek Norris and perhaps Bryce Harper) and some (hopefully) a bit further out (A.J. Cole and Eury Perez).

Though, it is still a work in progress.

It’s that work in progress that I wanted to investigate. I scanned the Handbook with a focus on trying to uncover what makes the top organizations the top and where the Nationals fell in terms of that measuring stick. BA was kind enough to provide us with source of talent for all 30 organizations and it’s that I chose to compare.

They initially break out homegrown versus acquired. There’s really not much to surmise there (aside from Toronto making out well in the Roy Halladay trade). Most teams’ top prospects are homegrown and the Nationals are no exception with 28/31 prospects homegrown (not to mention nine of their top 10).

What is clear to me is that the Nats need to improve their performance internationally if they want to run with the top organizations in MLB. Only four of the top 31 Nats are homegrown and international compared to the top 10 franchises (Kansas City, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Toronto, New York [AL], Cincinnati, Cleveland, Chicago [NL], San Diego & Colorado). With the exception of the Cubs, none of the top organizations have less than seven international prospects.

While the focus the Nationals have had internationally has restarted after Smiley-gate, they still have a long way to go to establish a healthy and steady international pipeline. Mike Rizzo and company stepped up in 2010 signing Yunesky Maya, but that needs to be replicated and amplified from this point forward. They really need to crank up their presence internationally.

This does not mean they need to throw millions of dollars at one player. What it means is they need to do is invest the cost of one season of Jason Marquis ($7.5 million) into getting their Dominican academy up and running, set up a presence in the Pacific Rim, and look to get quality from quantity. Sign a couple of dozen players in the $20-100K range and see who they can develop. This is critical to long-term success because there are only a finite number of draft picks each season while the number of international free agents is only capped by roster space.

Additionally, the Nats are casting their lot with college players in the draft. While a more known commodity when it comes to projection, this normally comes with a reduced ceiling of what they can become. It’s a choice between an older player who may max out as a slightly above replacement level player versus a younger player who could turn into a key part of a winning organization. Yes, the risk of flameout increases with younger players, but this is where top organizations show faith and trust in their player identification — and more importantly, their player-development personnel.

The jury is still out on the Nats’ player development. Guys drafted in the top 10 picks out of college should make the majors for at least a cup of coffee. The Nats need to show us that they can turn on a pipeline that will continually crank out guys for the 25-man roster, and not just #5 starters, middle relievers and bench guys. The Nats need to get a pipeline in place that develops starters consistently… not just for Nats Park but also to move in deals to address weaknesses.

Let me close with this: It’s fantastic to see the Lerners write the big checks for the draft. Please keep that up and understand that the best way to put the Nats in a position to compete on a regular basis is to continue that investment and increase it internationally. Keep exploiting the First Year Player Draft by drafting and signing the AJ Coles and Robbie Rays of the world. It’s a system that can be used to replenish a farm system.

Next, show consistency and results in the player development process. I’m happy to see the Espinosas and Desmonds succeed, but it doesn’t stop there; there needs to be a steady stream of bats and arms at the ready. Rizzo, Doug Harris and their staff have done a solid job of standing up a minor-league organization over the last couple of seasons but there is much more work to do.

Programming Note

  By Luke Erickson | January 29, 2011 - 8:35 am | , ,
8 Comments

Remember the last two snowstorms? Well, this week’s came too early to fulfill my private prediction that we’d get another just in time to preempt our third attempt to visit family in New England. So, as you might imagine, posts will slow (though it was a busy week this week wasn’t it?).

My Baseball America book came in the mail on Thursday. After the flurry of Keith Law posts, I chose to put my time into working on the player watchlists, as previously posted. It’s still a work in progress, but I’ve updated the page for lefthanded starters and published the page for righthanded starters, leaving unfinished the guys that I hope may be included in the Sickels book, which I hope to have in my hands upon my return.

And though his site is now officially gone, NFA Brian still lives on Twitter and I have to pass along two tweets combined into one quote regarding the BA book:

[Ten] of the 30 #Nationals were acquired in the last year — Harper (1), Cole (4), Ramos (5), Solis (6), Maya (11), Hague (14), Ray (15), ElvRamirez (20), Martinson (22), & Tatusko (26)

Add in the 2009 draft picks that are still in the system — Kobernus (21), Rosenbaum (23), Holder (28) — and that’s 13 out of 30 from the Rizzo era. This is not to say we’ll be the next Kansas City (let’s face it: that many high-risk/high-reward picks panning out does require a certain amount of luck), but we’re getting there… maybe not as fast as folks want, but it’s progress.

Keith Law Ranks Nats’ Top 10 Prospects

  By Luke Erickson | January 27, 2011 - 11:13 am | ,
17 Comments

As posted earlier, Keith Law has released his Top 10 Prospect List for each of the 30 MLB teams as well as his Top 100 prospects overall. Three Nationals made the latter. Most of you will guess that Bryce Harper (#2) and Derek Norris (#33) made the cut, but the surprise? Wilson Ramos (#95) made it over Danny Espinosa.

Without further ado, here’s the Law list:

  1. Bryce Harper, RF
  2. Derek Norris, C
  3. Wilson Ramos, C
  4. A.J. Cole, RHP
  5. Danny Espinosa, SS
  6. Sammy Solis, LHP
  7. Eury Perez, OF
  8. Robbie Ray, LHP
  9. Chris Marrero, 1B
  10. Destin Hood, OF

The inclusion of Ramos appears to be a function of Law’s belief that the number of legitimate catching prospects is scarce. He cites his throwing arm and bat (for average) as above-average tools but questions how much Ivan Rodriguez will be able to help him in the art of game-calling.

Law believes that Norris’s defensive reputation is undeserved, believing that he can work himself into becoming an average receiver while citing his above-average arm and adequate release (Derek does have a habit of fumbling sometimes). Naturally, he sides with the obvious assessment that Norris’s hitting skills will return 2009 form and his power will continue to develop.

Finally, while there’s not much to say about Bryce Harper that hasn’t already been said, it’s interesting to note that Law believes that CF is not necessarily out of the question, if for no other reason than it eliminates the need for him to learn the angles necessary to play RF. Like most, Law believes his ascent will be timed by how quickly he adjusts to better breaking pitches.

The Pipeline To The Majors

  By Luke Erickson | January 27, 2011 - 8:49 am | ,
14 Comments

There was another great article that was put up yesterday on ESPN Insider (yes, it’s a paid subscription, but well worth it) written by ProspectInsider.com’s Jason Churchill.

As the pic suggests, it’s about the minor leagues and what it takes to build a good farm system, a.k.a. the talent pipeline. But it also bears repeating that there is no one right way to do this. Tampa Bay (#2 this year per Keith Law), for example, leans heavily on the U.S. for its talent; Texas (#1 last year) has been aggressive with international signings and/or trading for international talent.

As we’ve already seen in the comments from yesterday, there are philosophical debates as to when and how high to draft high schoolers… and there are teams that have had success (Kansas City) and teams that have not (*ahem*).

Among the highlights from Churchill’s article…

…Recycling Talent — Which means developing players for both the parent club and trade fodder. It’s common for folks to remark about how it’s tough for a third baseman with Zimmerman at the top. But that also handicaps Washington if he were to get hurt, decline, or demand a trade. Having the next Ryan Zimmerman ready gives the team options that right now it doesn’t have.

…Balancing The Draft Against The International Market — This is a bit of a third rail for Nationals fans, but Churchill points out that while the domestic draft is considered safer, some teams have been successful leaning heavily on IFAs. His overall point? Any team that doesn’t go outside the U.S. is at a disadvantage. My personal opinion is that folks obsess too much about the high-dollar IFAs, when the evidence is ample that spreading that money out over more players is a better value play. Doesn’t mean I’m right, of course.

…Spending — Teams that go over slot tend to get better talent. In a related story, being tall is conducive to playing basketball. But Churchill points out how a “rich” team like the Mets (#26 per Law), which has not been a big spender, is languishing while a team like Cincinnati (#8) has been both spending and getting results. Unfortunately, there are teams like Philadelphia (#5) that seem be able to spend conservatively and still get good results, which contradicts Churchill, too.

…The Right Kind Of Depth — I’m going to quote Churchill directly: “The kind of depth that matters means having a true abundance of a particular position or skill, such as starting pitching. Having a good player is nice, being able to spare one is better.” (The italics are mine because it echoes my sentiments exactly). The whiners Folks wrung their hands over not being able to trade for Zach Greinke and Matt Garza, but that’s primarily because such a move would have been almost literally betting the farm (which is basically what Milwaukee did, coming in at #30 per Law and not having a single Top-100 prospect).

Today might just be another multiple-post day, but I thought I’d give the snowbound folks a little some to read and discuss while we wait for the thaw.