Apr 032013
 

Preliminary Watchlist 2013*Sigh* – still another day until the minor-league season begins, but it occurred to me that there might be some interest in see how the 2013 Watchlist has been distributed to start the season. Excluding the DSL guys for obvious reasons, here’s how it looks (ordered by position 1-9 first, alphabetical second):

SYRACUSE- Rosenbaum, E. Davis, Solano, Marrero, Kobernus, Rivero, Walters, Brown, E. Perez

HARRISBURG- Barrett, Demny, Holland, Karns, Lehman, Wort, Bloxom, Hague, Rendon, Skole, Hood, Goodwin, Souza

POTOMAC – Cole, Grace, Jordan, Meza, Ray, Self, Turnbull, Nieto, Keyes, Sanchez, Dykstra, Martinson, Burns, Ramsey, Taylor, Oduber

HAGERSTOWN – Anderson, Benincasa, Encarnacion, Hudgins, Mooneyham, Pineyro, Rauh, Schwartz, Manuel, Severino, Renda, S. Perez, McQuillan, Miller, E. Martinez, Ramos

D.L. – Applebee, Estevez, Garcia, Kimball, Meyers, Purke, Kieboom, Komatsu, Mesa

XST – Barrientos, C. Davis, Giolito, Lee, Mendez, M. Rodriguez, Selik, Solis, Vasquez, Williams, Lippincott, Pleffner, Foat, D. Eusebio, Difo, Jennings, Piwinica-Worms

Numerically, it’s tilted towards the “A” teams, which is as it should be — these are the guys that have proven themselves both worthy of being drafted and being promoted to full-season ball. But that’s quantity, not quality.

I still stand by my assessment that Harrisburg is the team to watch this summer, thanks in no small part to having four of Washington’s Top 10 prospects per Baseball America as well as a strong bullpen that could arguably produce another 40-man guy a la Erik Davis last fall.

It may pain some to read this, but this is the new world order. Those nine guys at Syracuse? They might actually have a better chance of getting traded than promoted. Nobody hopes this (except maybe their agents) of course, but that’s how it goes when the parent club is loaded.

Where will these guys be at season’s end? That’s the story we aim to tell over the next 22 weeks or so.

  16 Responses to “2013 Watchlist Breakdown”

  1. a lot of interesting storylines for me here.

    can Rosenbaum put himself in the 2014 #5 starter discussion? does Selik show what caused them to skip a level with him last year? do the A-list prospects meet expectations? can Souza make the most of his opportunity in AA?

    an advance thank you Luke for all your efforts

  2. The Nats really are loaded and their minor leaguers very under-rated. Two of those guys at Syracuse (Kobernus and Rosenbaum) were picked up by Detroit and Colorado, and they tried to make trades with Rizzo for them, but Mike wouldn’t let them go cheaply, even though neither could even make the team’s 40-man roster last fall.

    Within Nats world, they are marginal, expendable, and only a few of the others have a chance to make it to the bigs without a trade, barring injury to the guys on the 25-man roster. I expect Rizzo to move at least some of them, since their chief value would be on what they could bring on the trade market.

    If Houston could cherry-pick those Nats minor leaguers, chances are they would give the Nats their entire starting lineup in exchange for the Nats best prospects, in return. And Mike would not even think about taking that offer.

    • And Komatsu was actually picked up by two teams last season. Once he is back in the lineup the roster in SYR could look pretty close to major league with a couple of promotions from below.

      One need only look at Houston’s roster and you’ll see ex-Nats on the 25-man. One could certainly see where some on the SYR roster, as Luke suggests, end up appearing in that uniform given their manager Bo Porter.

  3. I feel the conversion of some of the high minor leaguers into viable trade bait is one of the most interesting stories in the minors this year. I particularly hope that Rosenbaum and Kobernus make the Rockies and Tigers regret taking them off their rosters. Even if they do, though, it is hard to see them cracking the Nats’ roster any time soon. If they could be traded for younger prospects with a higher ceiling, that would be great.

  4. As a minor leaguer the last thing you want is to be in triple a its the deadzone or trade bait. Its double a and then to the bigs.

  5. Clearly Giolito is the one to watch as the next potential Strasburg. And as a prep school draftee he’ll take longer to reach the majors. Perhaps right at the time JZimmnn becomes a free agent.

  6. Besides keeping my eyes on the rehabbing starting LHPs,
    I am curious to see how Pfeffner and Lipencott progress in their next 200-400 ABs in Nats farm.

  7. Keep an eye on Ian Krol in the Harrisburg bullpen. He might move quickly if he’s used in short work.

    • Sorry about the weird hyperlinking, but it seems to work. And obviously that should be “Which will get crowded … .”

    • You don’t. He’s not a prospect because he is no longer eligible for rookie status (<130PA, <50IP, <45 Days on roster during 25-man roster period). Doesn’t mean he’s not an interesting ballplayer, but that’s the standard that nearly every reputable prospect site uses.

      • I understand that (sort of); but as you indirectly acknowledge its an arbitrary standard designed for a typical minor league prospect. The transition of a position player to pitcher or vice versa doesn’t seem well addressed by the standard practice. Does that mean that such a player just becomes an unperson, whose successes or failures are simply irrelevant?

        • That’s actually the whole point of using rookie status – it’s not based on age, bonus money paid, draft position, country of origin, dexterity, position, etc. I wouldn’t shed a tear for Owings; he’s going to get much more attention and press **because** he’s an anomaly.

          • I get that. What I was trying (inartfully – sorry, it’s been a long week) to ask was whether discussions of Owings generally and his ability to positively impact the organization in particular are out of line here or on other prospect sites because he is not a “rookie” per se.

          • I think that’s fair game – As I’ve always done in the “N&N’s” or the “GBI’s” if you produce, you get mentioned. I don’t do the calculus of “who was the best hitting/pitching prospect” in a given game; I pick the best reliever (not necessarily who got the win or save) and the 2-3 best hitters, with an occasional mention of a meltdown or golden sombrero. And as we saw this morning, mistakes get made when the coffee hasn’t quite kicked in yet (though blaming the dog is much more fun), so it’s probably better that way.

 Leave a Reply

(required)

(required)

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Notify me of followup comments via e-mail. You can also subscribe without commenting.